High Surf Advisory 3, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
315 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

...TORNADO WATCH 435 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILED THRU THE MRNG AND
EARLY AFTN ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX. AS ANTICIPATED...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY AFFECTING OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS OF MID AFTN. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLD
COVER HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THIS AREA AND BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN SOME
INSTABILITY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SOME LLVL SHEAR WILL ALLOW
STORM THREAT TO PERSIST INTO LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. TORNADO WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES STILL POSSIBLE THRU THAT
TIME PERIOD. TRIMMED BACK POPS THIS EVENING TO CHC CATEGORY AND
MAINTAIN THAT THRU DAYTIME FRI. RAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET TNGT AND THEN INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HTG/INSTABILTY ON
FRI. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE
BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM. LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS NEEDED
IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO RESULT IN A FLOODING SITUATION
THANKS TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN RECEIVED AS THE RESULT OF ALEX.
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH WITH REEVALUATION POSSIBLE IN FUTURE
UPDATES. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL
MAINTAIN PCPN MENTION THRU THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO CONV RAIN CHCS. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY WARM WITH THE ADDITION SOME SUNNY BREAKS...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN LID ON READINGS SOARING REAL HIGH WITH ABUNDANT ATMS
MOISTURE IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR MIXING WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MAIN FLIGHT ISSUES WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW CIGS. SPEED SHEAR AND A BIT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
EXIST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS
TAF SITES THUS CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AT MVFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
AND AROUND MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS EFFECTS FROM WHAT IS
NOW TROPICAL STORM ALEX CONTINUE TO WANE. SCA CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ROUGH
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT A MORE TYPICAL SEA ENVIRONMENT WILL RETURN FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  89  81  89 /  40  50  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          81  90  80  91 /  40  50  30  30
HARLINGEN            80  90  80  91 /  40  50  30  30
MCALLEN              79  92  78  92 /  50  50  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  93  78  93 /  50  50  30  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  82  85 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
     135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

69/57/MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1205 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

TXZ248>257-021100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1205 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL 8
PM CDT TONIGHT. TORNADOES COULD FORM WITHIN THE OUTER REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ALEX OR FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE RICH
MOIST ATMOSPHERE THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF SATURATED
SOILS WILL PRODUCE RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND ARROYOS ALONG
WITH URBAN FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS IN
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL 1 PM CDT TODAY. MINOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BEACH UP TO THE DUNE LINE LEADING TO BEACH
EROSION.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT TONIGHT FOR ALL
LOCATIONS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE SURF WILL REMAIN
AGITATED TODAY AS LARGE WAVES CONTINUE TO BREAK FROM THE EAST IN
THE SURF ZONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND MINOR STREET FLOODING ON FRIDAY AND DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED SPOTTERS SHOULD
REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-021100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1205 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS UNTIL 8 PM CDT TONIGHT. WATERSPOUTS OR
TORNADOES COULD FORM WITHIN THE OUTER REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
ALEX OR FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE RICH MOIST
ATMOSPHERE THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 7
PM CDT TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS UNTIL 1 PM CDT FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS OR MARINERS SHOULD REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

GB/RV