Gale Warning 8, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
712 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO
SKY COVER...WEATHER...AND PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FIRST...ADDED SOME ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS FOR THE
ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS FOR TONIGHT...AS ENHANCED CUMULUS IS
NOTED OVER THE TAMAULIPAS WATERS...WITH KBRO DOPPLER RADAR SEEING
SOME WEAK ECHOES. THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...MAINTAINED THE DRY
WEATHER TREND INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...BUT OPTED TO SHOW
A DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS FOR THE DAY TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
NEIGHBORING WFO CRP AND CURRENT MODEL DATA. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO VERY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ADDED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT ROARS
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEGINNING RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT. AND...OPTED TO GO FULLY OVERCAST IN THAT TIME FRAME...AS IS
CUSTOMARY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK AND
NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM.../6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD ON FRI LIKELY TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE 50S AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND REMAIN THERE
ALL DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED AFTER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
END AND CLOUDS DECREASE FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A PRETTY NICE DAY IN STORE FOR SAT. A RETURN TO MOIST EAST
AND SE FLOW SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON.ANOTHER LARGE AND DEEP LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT TO BLAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR
PRETTY SLIM AT THIS POINT.
&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY UNDER 7 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 18 CST/24 UTC.
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS WITHIN THE LAGUNA MADRE INDICATE THAT STRONG
WINDS ARE CONTINUING...AND THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO INTERACT INTENSELY WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST VERY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS
AND HIGHER SEAS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THUS...A
GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
BEGINNING MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY...WITH THE
VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE GALE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING SOMETIME WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ON THE VAD WIND PROFILE...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO PREVENT THE INCLUSION OF A NON-
CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR COMPONENT IN THE CURRENT OR FUTURE TAF
FORECASTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
OF THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL SURELY CAUSE
AN INCREASE AND LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  83  49  53 /  10  10  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          72  85  49  57 /  10  10  30  40
HARLINGEN            73  86  47  54 /  10  10  30  40
MCALLEN              72  89  47  54 /  10  10  30  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  92  47  57 /  10  10  20  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  82  54  61 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ150-155-170-175.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

66/51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1238 AM CST THU NOV 25 2010

TXZ248>257-251200-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1238 AM CST THU NOV 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING...MAY
OCCUR WITHIN KENEDY...BROOKS...JIM HOGG...AND ZAPATA COUNTY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT THE LOCAL BEACHES THURSDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-251200-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1238 AM CST THU NOV 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE BETWEEN 6
AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF
PADRE ISLAND FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY. THERE IS A
STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT THE GALE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ...WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.