Gale Warning 6, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
308 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY/...FIRST DAY OF SPRING TO
USHER IN CHILLY WEEKEND FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH FAIRLY STRONG
DYNAMICS. MID LEVEL BULGE OF DRIER AIR WILL KEEP WESTERN ZONES
CAPPED AND BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF HWY 281. COLD
FRONT WILL REACH HEBBRONVILLE AROUND 15Z...MCALLEN AROUND
18Z...BROWNSVILLE AROUND 20Z.

LATEST NAM AND RUC RUNS PULLING SURFACE LOW FASTER TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST.  THIS SCENARIO MAY KEEP STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM BEING FULLY REALIZED AT SFC INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WILL FOLLOW NAM/RUC REASONING FOR NOW AND BACK OFF WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY. AS FOR DAYTIME TODAY...SFC WINDS LIKELY TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT DURATION IS A QUESTION. FROM 17-23Z MOST AREAS
LIKELY TO SEE AN HOUR OF CRITERIA OR POSSIBLY TWO.  SITTING ON THE
FENCE FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE GOING TO PRESS.

COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...SUNNY SKIES...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL SEE TEMPS REACH NEAR 80 ALONG THE RIVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE
TONIGHT.  LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE THEM A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH 30S NORTH AND WEST...MID 40S NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SETTLING INTO SOUTH TEXAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH L/V WINDS. CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TO THE REGION...WITH NEAR RECORD
LOWS AROUND 40 DEGREES /SEE CLIMATE SECTION/. WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO BRING GULF
MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION. THINK THERE MIGHT BE SOME SEA FOG
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SWEEPS
THROUGH TEXAS MIDWEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
MAIN ENERGY REMAINS TO THE NORTH...BUT A COUPLE VORT MAXIMA MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING ENOUGH
LIFT FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...BUT MODELS STILL ARE
NOT IN AGREEMENT TO THE STRENGTH OR ABILITY FOR THIS FRONT TO MAKE
THE TREK TO FAR SOUTH TEXAS. CURRENTLY THINK WIND SHIFT LINE WILL
REACH THE VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND
RETURN NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...RETURNING WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR CIGS DRIFTING ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RELAX AS FRONT APPROACHES
AREA TERMINALS 17-19Z. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH 25KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND MAINTAIN INTO EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
SLACKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AND RELAX ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP TERMINAL AREAS WITH FRONT
AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH GALES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTHERN MARINE
ZONES WITH THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. SCA FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE REACHING 20
TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON TODAY. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL ALTHOUGH NOT
SO QUICKLY KEEPING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHY OF RED FLAG CRITERIA
TODAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY LESS THAN ROBUST AND SUNDAY WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S AND 30S. PREFER
STRONGER NAM WINDS GIVEN DRY AIR AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM. HIGHER
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD MIX DOWN ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
WINDS TO 25 AND GUSTY AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
REMAIN SHY OF CRITERIA AND WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE VALLEY THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR RECORD LOWS. SATURDAY MORNING RECORDS
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL WITH RECORDS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWS
FORECAST FOR THE LOW TO MID 40S. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO BE REACHED. RECORDS FOR THE 22ND ARE: BRO -
38...HRL - 39...MFE - 39. ALL OF THESE RECORDS WERE SET IN 1989.
ALL 3 STATIONS ARE FORECASTING LOWS ABOUT 3 DEGREES FROM THE
RECORD LOWS...AND WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING...COULD REACH THESE NUMBERS BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  44  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          80  43  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            78  42  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              80  44  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  46  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  47  71  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
     SUNDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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