Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
145 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY/...IF I HAD RELY ON SINGLE
STATION ANALYSIS I WOULD THINK WE WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF TROPICAL
SEASON. OF COURSE THAT ISN/T THE CASE BUT MID APRIL IS TURNING OUT
TO BE QUITE WET. INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE MID LEVELS ARE INFLUENCED BY H5 LOW
CENTERED OVER THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THE UPPER
LEVELS ARE BEING DICTATED BY SOME TROUGHING WITH THE AXIS CURRENTLY
MOVING TO THE EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS POPS COVERAGE. WENT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH AND CIN
VALUES WILL INCREASE. H5 WARM CORE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY WITH SURFACE LOW SLANTED TO THE WEST. SFC LOW
WILL HELP BRING A COOL FRONT/TROUGH TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIFT SOME PARCELS FOR MORE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. MINOR SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP IS HARD TO DO BUT DREW HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF CWA WHERE GREATEST LIFT
WILL OCCUR. BY SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

TRIED NOT TO GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH POPS BUT STILL HAND DREW ALL POPS
GRIDS. LOADED ADJMET FOR TEMPS BUT WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/S LOWS AS ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE GROUND
SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR INTO THE UPPER 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM /7 AM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY WITH MINOR DISTURBANCES OUT AHEAD
OF IT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
DUE MOSTLY TO THE CLOUD COVER.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM
THE EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BECOMING SOUTHEAST THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK CAUSING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL
BE IN STORE FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THE MIDDLE TO THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER THIS EVENING AS ROUGH EASTERLY SWELLS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND OF
THE SWELL HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE MODERATE FROM THE EAST AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING.

7 AM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE
ISLAND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREAS ON SUNDAY.  ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR EARLY BECOMING MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT. TALL
CB UP TO 50K FT AT TIMES WILL AFFECT FLIGHT PATHS FROM N TO S INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. TURBULENCE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
ATMOSPHERE EVEN SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM CONVECTION. HAVE TEMPO
GROUPS IN TAFS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN BETWEEN TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART.
CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET AND CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER DUE
TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF ATMOSPHERE. IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE AS STRATUS DEVELOPS BEFORE
QUICKLY RISING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  71  77  68  77 /  20  40  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          68  80  66  79 /  20  40  30  30
HARLINGEN            68  80  65  79 /  20  40  30  30
MCALLEN              69  83  67  80 /  20  40  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      68  82  64  80 /  30  40  30  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   72  73  70  76 /  20  40  20  30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM...65

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