Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
155 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE ALEX...A LITTLE STRONGER...AIMS AT THE NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...

.DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS NORTH OF THE CENTER
OF HURRICANE ALEX CONTINUE TO PUSH WWD ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY THIS
AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH TIME TDA INTO TNGT AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TAKING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LATER TDA.
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT THRU AFTN/EARLY EVE GIVEN THE HIGH DEW
POINTS...INSTABILITY AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. ANTICIPATE
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO WORSEN AS ALEX MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO PERSIST THRU THE
BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE THREAT OF FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY WITH LOCATION WITH A GENERAL
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES FOR THE ENTIRE STORM EVENT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING 30 TO 40
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON IN CAMERON COUNTY...AND 45 TO
55 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT AS HURRICANE ALEX MAKES LANDFALL
WITHIN 100 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE AROUND OR BEFORE SUNSET
TNGT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON THU AS ALEX MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL INTO TNGT AND THU MRNG AS HURRICANE ALEX STEADILY
MOVES TWD THE NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTLINE.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THRU EARLY THU MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS THIS MRNG ACROSS OUR MSA HAVE SHOWN A
GRADUALLY BUT STEADY INCREASE AS HURRICANE ALEX CONTINUES ON A
WEST NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTWARD
LATER TDA. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THIS
AFTERNOON REACHING 40 TO 50 KNOTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS UP TO OR ABOVE 60 KNOTS. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TREND WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ALEX MOVES INLAND
AND WEAKENS. SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE TWD THE END OF THE
WEAK AS THE TROPICAL STORM HAZARDS END.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 523 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010/

..ALEX DEEPENING AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO...

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PULSING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITHIN THE RAINBANDS
OF HURRICANE ALEX. CONDITIONS ALOFT FAVOR FURTHER ORGANIZATION DUE
TO A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE. THOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN SOME WOBBLING IN ALEX'S PATH...THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST MAINTAINS CLOUDY
SKIES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A THREAT OF FLOODING FROM
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. CAMERON...WILLACY...KENEDY AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES COULD SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY...
WITH TOTALS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TODAY...BECOMING 40 TO 50
MPH IN CAMERON COUNTY BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND 45 TO 55 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT AS HURRICANE ALEX MAKES LANDFALL ROUGHLY 100
MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS ALEX MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS.

AVIATION...TAFS WILL REFLECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH
TEMPO GROUPS FOR SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL CAUSE
TURBULENCE DURING LANDING AND TAKEOFF.

MARINE...WINDS OVERNIGHT WERE 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST...WITH SEAS AT 13 TO 14 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER
DETERIORATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 20
FEET AND NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REPLACE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LATE
THIS WEEK INTO SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010/

.ALEX GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

UPDATE...FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND ISSUED
UPDATED PRODUCTS. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX ARE SPREADING
ONSHORE...AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODS AND WILL BE THE BIGGEST SHORT TERM THREAT TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS LATER THIS MORNING.

STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ALEX MAKES LANDFALL.
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES MAY AFFECT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND AS HURRICANE ALEX APPROACHES THE COAST TODAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  88  79  86 / 100 100  90  70
BROWNSVILLE          80  86  79  88 / 100 100  90  70
HARLINGEN            80  87  79  89 / 100 100  90  70
MCALLEN              80  86  79  88 / 100 100  90  70
RIO GRANDE CITY      80  84  79  88 / 100 100  90  70
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  81  86 / 100 100  80  60

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HURRICANE WARNING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ248>257.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ248>250.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ252-
     253.

     HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ254-255.

GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
410 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

TXZ248>257-010915-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
410 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY...COASTAL WILLACY...
AND COASTAL CAMERON COUNTY. A HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR INLAND WILLACY AND INLAND CAMERON COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTY. A TROPICAL
STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...AND BROOKS
COUNTY. HURRICANE ALEX IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 INCHES.

RIP CURRENT RISK IS HIGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HURRICANE WARNINGS TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TO REMAIN IN EFFECT.

RIP CURRENT RISK TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE OR FLOODING PRODUCED
BY ALEX TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-010915-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
410 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OFFSHORE. HURRICANE ALEX IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH HURRICANE ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
LOW IN SUBSIDING AND COULD STAY ABOVE 10 FEET UNTIL LATER FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

MARINERS SHOULD REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE PRODUCED BY ALEX TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
201 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     LA FERIA                26.16N 97.82W
06/30/2010                   CAMERON            TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR EL CENTRO FOODS ON MAIN
            STREET.

&&

TS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
256 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HURRICANE        HARLINGEN               26.20N 97.69W
06/30/2010                   CAMERON            TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS WIND DAMAGE ON WILSON ROAD, 1.5 MILES WEST
            OF HIGHWAY 77 IN HARLINGEN. FIREWORKS STAND TURNED OVER,
            FENCE BLOWN OVER, CAR MOVED ACROSS THE ROAD.

&&

CAMPBELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     HARLINGEN               26.20N 97.69W
06/30/2010                   CAMERON            TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR HARLINGEN AIRPORT.

&&

CAMPBELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
302 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     FLOOD            BROWNSVILLE             25.93N 97.48W
06/30/2010                   CAMERON            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT WATER COVERED BOCA
            CHICA BOULEVARD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF INTERNATIONAL.

&&

TS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
305 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     FLOOD            BROWNSVILLE             25.93N 97.48W
06/30/2010                   CAMERON            TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED THAT RINGOLD STREET IS FLOODED NEAR THE
            GLADYS PORTER ZOO AND THE CHILDRENS MUSEUM IS STARTING TO
            FLOOD.

&&

TS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION FOR TEXT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
305 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BROWNSVILLE             25.93N 97.48W
06/30/2010                   CAMERON            TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED THAT RINGOLD STREET IS FLOODED NEAR THE
            GLADYS PORTER ZOO AND THE CHILDRENS MUSEUM IS STARTING TO
            FLOOD.

&&

TS