Tropical Storm Warning 1007, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1152 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. ALL EYES WILL THEN BE ON HURRICANE EARL AS IT
APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT EARL MAY BRING AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION AS THE STORM PASSES WITHIN 40 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO A STRONG
POSSIBILITY FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. EARL WILL
QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS FROM CHH/ALY AND OKX ALL SUPPORT FULL SUN TEMPS OF MU90S
AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE. THUS ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPS /SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS/. SOME RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH WINDS BENDING TO THE S-SW. HOWEVER EVEN
THOSE LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S.

SURF...IMPRESSIVE SURF BEING OBSERVED AT AREA BEACH CAMS. 5 TO 7
FT SOUTHEAST SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 13-14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TODAY AS EARL APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. BEACH GOERS
SHOULD ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE SWIMMING RESTRICTIONS AT OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...EARL WILL START ITS
NORTH-NORTHEAST TURN TOWARD THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL PUSH N. WITH ENOUGH RELATIVELY
DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...IT APPEARS THAT THE LEADING EDGE
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH EARL WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION UNTIL
FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE S COAST AFTER 06Z.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WINDS START TO
BACK TO S-SE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

1130AM UPDATE...
HURRICANE CENTER HAS NUDGED TRACK OF EARL A TAD TO THE
WEST...PASSING ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AROUND 03Z-
06Z. GIVEN THIS PROXIMITY HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM
WESTPORT MA TO HULL MA...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND
MARTHAS VINEYARD.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RI TO WEST
OF WESTPORT MA /INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND/...THEN TROPICAL STORM WATCH
CONTINUES FROM NORTH OF HULL TO MERRIMACK.

NEW 12Z NAM REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE
06Z GFDL AND HWRF ARE BOTH NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK
AS WELL. IN ADDITION...BOTH OF THESE TROPICAL MODELS INDICATE
EARL/S WIND FIELD IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WILL BE WEAKENING AND
BECOMING ASYMMETRICAL AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REMAINING WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.
HOWEVER THE WIND FIELD COULD EXPAND IF EARL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL
AT OUR LATITUDE. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE SUGGEST EARL MAY BE
EXPERIENCING AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT WHICH WOULD INCREASE ITS WIND
FIELD SIZE.

NEVERTHELESS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES
WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH KEEP IN MIND WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH TREES STILL FULLY LEAVED...WIND SPEEDS AS
LOW AS 35 KT CAN DOWN AND POSSIBLY UPROOT TREES. SO POWER OUTAGES
ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S OF THE REGION WHILE EARL TRANSITIONS TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND ANCHORS ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. S-SW WIND SHOULD PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ISOLD SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE WINDSWEPT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
RI/E MA WHERE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS HURRICANE EARL MOVES AWAY. VFR
BY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...S SWELLS ALREADY STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. USED A BLEND OF THE WNA AND HURRICANE WNA FOR
INCREASING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFTS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...DEPENDING UPON IF OR WHEN THE WATCHES ARE
CONVERTED TO WARNINGS.  S-SE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
TO INCORPORATE THE 09Z DATA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. HAVE
MENTIONED A BIT HIGHER WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ON THE OPEN WATERS E AND
S OF NANTUCKET AS EARL PASSES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD IN ADVANCE OF EARL. EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS
ABOUT 30 MILES SE OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AS CLOSE AS
THE WATERS ADJACENT TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WHILE TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING WATERS. CURRENTLY HAVE
SEAS FORECASTED TO BE 20 TO 30 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS NEAR
NANTUCKET. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

SATURDAY...WINDS DIMINISH...BUT SMALL CRAFT FOR HIGH SEAS LIKELY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS...BUT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...THURSDAY SEP 2ND -

BOS...100...1953
PVD...99....1953
BDL...101...1953
ORH...99....1953

CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER 2010 INCLUDES JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST
BOSTON...3RD WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD 73.6F
HARTFORD...3RD WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD 73.7F
PROVIDENCE...WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD 74.0F
WORCESTER...7TH WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD 70.5F

2010 DAILY 90+ MAXIMUMS THROUGH 9/1/2010

BOSTON...24 DAYS
RECORD NUMBER IS 29 DAYS SET IN 1983...FOLLOWED BY 28 DAYS IN
1955 AND 27 DAYS IN 2002 AND 1991...25 DAYS IN 1988

HARTFORD/BDL...32 DAYS
RECORD NUMBER IS 38 DAYS SET IN 1983...FOLLOWED BY 35 DAYS IN
2002...34 DAYS IN 1965...32 DAYS IN 1966

PROVIDENCE...17 DAYS
RECORD NUMBER IS 30 DAYS SET IN 1983

WORCESTER NEAR 1000 FT ELEVATION...5 DAYS
RECORD NUMBER IS 18 DAYS IN 1988 AND 1949

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAZ019>024.
     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ017-018.
     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAZ007-015-016.
NH...NONE.
RI...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RIZ002-004>008.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ235>237-256.
     HURRICANE WARNING FOR ANZ231>234-254-255.
     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANZ230-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT - UPDATED 1151 AM
SHORT TERM...NOCERA/EVT - UPDATED 1151 AM
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT
MARINE...EVT
CLIMATE...STRAUSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

RIZ002-004>008-031400-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-
NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
958 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ019>024-031400-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
958 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HURRICANE WATCH.
   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HURRICANE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ017-018-031400-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
958 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ007-015-016-031400-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
958 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ002>006-008>014-026-031400-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
958 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ002>004-NHZ012-015-RIZ001-003-031400-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
WESTERN KENT RI-
958 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NHZ011-031400-
CHESHIRE NH-
958 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ231>234-254-255-031400-
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
958 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HURRICANE WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HURRICANE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230-235>237-250-251-256-031400-
BOSTON HARBOR-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
958 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.