Special Weather Statement, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
929 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY. PERIODIC UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD IS POSSIBLE WHILE A WARM FRONT NEARS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROF SHOULD SET UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. TRIED TO TIME CONVECTION A BIT MORE THIS MORNING BASED ON
ANALYSIS OF 20/12Z SOUNDINGS. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN
THE 83-86 DEGREE RANGE.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IS PROBABLY THE BEST SKY DESCRIPTOR FOR TODAY AS
BANDS OF HIGH/MID CLOUDS FORM AND PASS OVERHEAD TODAY. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD AID
IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION TODAY...ESPECIALLY SE OF A KMHT-KBAF
LINE. PREFRONTAL TROF AND GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD PROVIDE A
TRIGGER FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND SE OF THAT KMHT-KBAF LINE. GIVEN
CONVECTION INITIATION...A COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. NOT TOTALLY
SOLD ON A DECENT EVENT AS JET SUPPORT SEEMS MARGINAL...BEST SHORTWAVE
FORCING LOOKS TO OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTH...AND SFC CONVERGENCE
IN VICINITY OF PREFRONTAL TROF NOT OVERLY STRONG. NEVERTHELESS...
ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM MORNING SOUNDINGS TO CARRY ENHANCED WORDING FOR
GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

MAX TEMPS BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE. OVERALL...A VERY WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. WE CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER...BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND MID LEVELS VERY
DRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE QUITE WARM ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHS 85 TO
90 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME AS
W-E ELONGATED RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. THE BIG
FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL NEAR OR OVER THE REGION...AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES THAT WILL
TRAVEL IN THE MEAN UPPER FLOW AND ALONG THIS FRONT. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WEAK
LOWS...WHICH MEANS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AROUND MID WEEK.
BEYOND THURSDAY...TIMING REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE THOUGH SOME
INDICATIONS OF IMPROVING WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG LATE AT NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY WHILE A WARM
FRONT SETS UP JUST S OF THE REGION. NAM CONTINUES TO BE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...EVEN DEVELOPING LOW PRES ALONG THIS
FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE OVERRUNNING SETTING UP
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW SEEN AT THIS POINT. PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...THEN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS APPROACH WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z IN THE RATHER FAST
ZONAL FLOW. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS AS TIME GOES ON...DEPENDING
UPON WHETHER THE LOW ACTUALLY FORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME
WITH THE TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS WELL
AS WHETHER THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO OR OVER THE
REGION. AS OF NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN A COUPLE OF WEAK
WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. WILL REMAIN RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND.
DEPENDING UPON THE FRONT/S PLACEMENT...COULD SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE
80S MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...HAVE KEEP TEMPS MAINLY
AROUND 80 DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW APPROACH DURING THURSDAY...WHICH MAY HELP PUSH THE FRONT S OF
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES MAY
PUSH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A VFR DAY TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS
OUTSIDE OF ANY SCT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. PATCHY IFR IN STRATUS
WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.

KBOS...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP JUST WEST OF
LOGAN BETWEEN 17-19Z TODAY...AND A FEW OF THESE MAY MOVE OVER THE
AIRPORT WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY SFC WINDS.
THE THREAT SHOULD END AROUND 00Z.

TONIGHT...ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING LEAVING
BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH 09Z.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR EARLY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W-E. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS N CT/W MA/SW NH/ AFTER 18Z.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG PATCHES AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG PATCHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE.

THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND
PASS TO THE EAST BY LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTH COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SCA ATTM. A
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING OR TWO MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON
IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUE NIGHT AND WED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW PROBABILITY OF 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH CONTINUED W-SW SWELLS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EKSTER/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EKSTER/EVT
MARINE...EKSTER/EVT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
121 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

CTZ003-004-MAZ012-RIZ001-201815-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-
121 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

AT 116 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL 2 MILES NORTHEAST
OF WILLINGTON...OR ABOUT 4 MILES NORTH OF MANSFIELD...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...UNION...ASHFORD...EASTFORD...
  WOODSTOCK...POMFRET...PUTNAM...KILLINGLY...THOMPSON...FOSTER...
  BURRILLVILLE...DOUGLAS AND GLOCESTER.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN SMALL BRANCHES. MINOR STREET FLOODING AND
PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

LAT...LON 4208 7167 4183 7162 4179 7233 4196 7237

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
148 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

CTZ003-004-MAZ012-013-RIZ001-002-201830-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN WORCESTER
MA-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WINDHAM CT-
148 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

AT 144 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL OVER POMFRET...OR
ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF PUTNAM...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...PUTNAM...KILLINGLY...THOMPSON...
  FOSTER...BURRILLVILLE...DOUGLAS...GLOCESTER...UXBRIDGE...
  MILLVILLE...SMITHFIELD...WOONSOCKET...NORTH SMITHFIELD AND
  BLACKSTONE.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. MINOR
STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. BRIEF RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

LAT...LON 4210 7150 4186 7146 4181 7208 4199 7212

STRAUSS