Small Craft Advisory 99, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 PM EDT SAT NOV 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SOME CLEARING TO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT...MAINLY THE INTERIOR. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTH TO NEAR CAPE COD BY MONDAY
MORNING AND BRING A COLD RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW
WILL LINGER OFFSHORE TUESDAY...THEN DRIFT OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNEDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MERIDIONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND...COURTESY OF UPPER TROF OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND EASTERN
LAKES. THIS FLOW HAS STALLED A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SUCH WAVE ARE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT
ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS WAS MOVING NORTH UP THE COAST TOWARD LONG
ISLAND AND WILL AT LEAST PARTIAL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. FOR THAT REASON WE ARE KEEPING PARTIAL CLOUD COVER IN THE
FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDS ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS.

TEMPS ARE A 2:1 BLEND OF GFS MOS AND NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHARP UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH STALLED FRONT
REMAINING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BRING DRY WEATHER. LOWER
CONFIDENCE AS TO SKY COVER. FOR NOW WE ARE KEEPING CLOUDS ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR NORTHWEST. TEMPS ARE A BLEND
OF MOS...WITH 900 MB TEMPS 1C TO -2C POINTING TO MAX TEMPS 45 TO
50.

UPPER TROF CLOSES OFF. THE CLOSED LOW THEN MOVES OVER OR SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LOW GENERATES ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
OFFSHORE FRONT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE SYSTEM THEN MOVES NORTH AND
GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW. THE MODEL SUITE HAS CHANGED A TAD
AT 12Z WITH THE SURFACE LOW PULLED FARTHER WEST THAN
BEFORE...EITHER TOWARD OR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z MONDAY. THE
12Z NAM IS THE FARTHEST WEST AND THE 12Z GFS FARTHEST EAST.

WE USED THE 12Z GFS AS OUR ANCHOR FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT GRIDS AS
THIS TRENDS WEST FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS BUT WITHOUT THE EXTEMES.
WE BLENDED 2:1 GFS MOS/NAM MOS FOR TEMPS AND 1:1 GFS WITH THE 09Z
SREF FOR POPS. THIS BRINGS RAIN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING...AND BUILDS TO LIKELY POPS IN EASTERN
MASS. WE PROBABLY COULD HAVE MOVED LIKELY POPS WEST TO THE
CENTRAL HILLS BUT WILL SETTLE FOR THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION. WITH
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CHANGING AS THEY HAVE...CONFIDENCE ON THIS
CHAIN OF EVENTS IS LOW.

WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN. THE GFS SHOWS 30-55 KNOTS AT 950 MB
WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE FOR MIXING THIS WIND TO THE
SURFACE ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. IF THE CURRENT
SCENARIO VERIFIES THEN WE MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MON
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.

GFS REMAINS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH OCEAN STORM PULLING EAST TUE AND
BUILDING RIDGE INTO NEW ENG BY MID WEEK. GFS IS PROBABLY TOO
PROGRESSIVE GIVEN THESE BLOCKING PATTERNS ARE USUALLY SLOWER TO
BREAK DOWN SO WE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BUT STILL A CHANCE SOME SHOWERS
COULD LINGER NEAR EAST COASTAL MA IN THE MORNING IF ECMWF IS
CORRECT. MORNING CLOUDS EAST GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE.
GUSTY N/NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH BUILD INTO NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING MOSUNNY AND DRY WEATHER. MILDER AIRMASS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS EWD INTO THE REGION AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF CIGS
2500-3000 FEET NORTH OF BOSTON...3500-4500 FEET ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH CEILINGS AOA 6000 FEET. INCREASING NORTH
WIND ALONG THE COAST WITH WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ON CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWERING CEILINGS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN RAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY BOS-BED-PVD.

KBOS...CEILINGS 3000-3500 FEET THIS EVENING BUT IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT TO OVER 6000 FEET. NORTH WIND TONIGHT INCREASING TO
AROUND 14 KNOTS SUNDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THIS EVENING...THEN HIGH
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH POSITION
OF OCEAN STORM. HIGHEST PROB FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY N/NW
WINDS WITH G35 KT POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LINGERING MVFR
CIGS EASTERN NEW ENG IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR.

WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT MOST WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ROUGH SEAS ON THE UNSHELTERED WATERS TONIGHT FROM STRONG SOUTHEAST
SWELL. INCREASING WIND LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF CAPE COD WITH NORTH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL INTENSIFY INTO
A GALE CENTER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS
GALE CENTER HAS SHIFTED WITH THE DATA FROM 12Z...IT IS NOW
FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR CAPE COD BY 12Z MONDAY. FORECAST GUIDENCE
SHOWS 30-55 KNOT WINDS AT 950 MB...A COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE IS A FAIR POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS WIND
TO BE BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE. IF THE FORECAST MOVEMENT SHOULD
VERIFY...IT WOULD BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN
WATERS SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
OUR EASTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
OCEAN STORM BACKS IN TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRES EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE SCA WIND
GUSTS COULD LINGER OVER EASTERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-
     232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC

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