Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY SHOULD ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507 WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM HAS
BEEN EXPANDED INTO RI AND EASTERN MA. WE EXCLUDED CAPE COD...MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET WHERE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TO OCCUR. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP AIRMASS MORE STABLE...
ALTHOUGH ELEVATED STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAX INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS CT...RI AND INTERIOR SE MA.
0-6KM SHEAR HAS ALSO INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON BUT HIGHER VALUES
/40KT/ AND BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL BACK ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. INTERESTING TO NOTE ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS
BEEN IN FORM OF DISCRETE CELLS AS OPPOSED TO ORGANIZED LINE
SEGMENTS...AND LATEST HRRR/COSPA INDICATE THIS WILL BE TREND AS
ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
BUT ANY RIGHT MOVING CELLS WOULD CERTAINLY HAVE TORNADIC
POTENTIAL. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT OCCURRING HOWEVER.

INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS IS 4-7 PM FROM KEENE TO HARTFORD AND 6-10
PM MANCHESTER TO BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG S COAST AND WHERE ANY RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR ARRIVES THU AND THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
REGION.

FAIRLY DEEP MIXING LAYER EXPECTED THU PER MODEL SOUNDINGS SO WE
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 25-30 MPH GUSTS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH DOWNSLOPING W/NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
*A ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
*VERY WARM/HUMID WEATHER RETURNS BY SATURDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON OR NIGHT
*RELIEF FROM THE HEAT/HUMIDITY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER

OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WITH MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT.  MANY OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF DO
APPEAR TO BE TIMING RELATED WITH THE ECMWF 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN
THE GFS.

LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON FRIDAY WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
PROGRESSION OF A WARM FRONT AND THE ACCOMPANYING POSSIBILITY OF
RAIN.  THE NAM MOVES THE WARM FRONT UP AS FAR NORTH AS THE MASS PIKE
AND A LARGE AREA OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT ALL THE WAY UP TO THE NH BORDER AND
ONLY SCATTERED 0.01 TO 0.10 OF RAIN.  HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE
GRIDS FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY...THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING HOT...HUMID WEATHER TO THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE IS STILL A DECENT CAP IN
THE MID LEVELS ON GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
IF THAT HOLDS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE DRIER...MORE SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HUMIDITY WILL BE DOWN AND PRECIPITATION IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON IFR/LIFR RETURNING TO S COAST AROUND SUNSET.
TAFS MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY ON TIMING. TSTMS WITH MVFR/IFR
EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS BAF/BDL 21Z-23Z AND PVD/BOS/MHT
00Z-02Z AS ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NY HEADS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 06Z EXCEPT FOR FMH HYA ACK
WHERE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL DAYBREAK THU.

THU AND THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. W/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
12Z- 22Z. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...TAF COORDINATED WITH CWSU ZBW. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
SEA BREEZE SUBSIDING 23Z-01Z. TSRA MOST LIKELY 00Z-02Z BUT ISOLD
TSTMS COULD AFFECT TERMINAL AS EARLY AS 21Z.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THU NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY SWELL COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS BACK INTO S COASTAL WATERS
THU AND THU EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
SCA AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY GIVEN W/NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A RETURN OF 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY.  AN INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP WIND GUSTS BELOW CRITERIA
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
333 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>021-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-221945-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
333 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TO SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES THURSDAY.

THERE ALSO IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ022>024-221945-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
333 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TO SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES THURSDAY.

THERE ALSO IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ231-232-250-254>256-221945-
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
333 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ALSO IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ230-233>237-251-221945-
BOSTON HARBOR-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-
NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
333 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ALSO IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
217 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

MAZ002-003-211915-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
217 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

AT 214 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND
PENNY SIZED HAIL 16 MILES WEST OF MONROE...OR ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF
NORTH ADAMS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO FRANKLIN COUNTY BETWEEN 245 AND 315 PM.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...MONROE...ROWE...CHARLEMONT...
  HAWLEY...HEATH...BUCKLAND...ASHFIELD...COLRAIN...SHELBURNE...
  CONWAY...LEYDEN...NORTHFIELD...MONTAGUE...GREENFIELD...GILL...
  DEERFIELD AND BERNARDSTON.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN SMALL BRANCHES. MINOR STREET FLOODING AND
PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

      4247 7248 4257 7297 4265 7295 4267 7298
      4268 7298 4270 7296 4270 7302 4274 7303

KJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
346 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASHFIELD                42.53N 72.78W
07/21/2010                   FRANKLIN           MA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON BAPTIST CORNER ROAD.

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WHATELY                 42.45N 72.62W
07/21/2010                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WHATELY                 42.45N 72.62W
07/21/2010                   FRANKLIN           MA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON CHRISTIAN LANE.

&&

FIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASHFIELD                42.53N 72.78W
07/21/2010                   FRANKLIN           MA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON BAPTIST CORNER ROAD.

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WHATELY                 42.45N 72.62W
07/21/2010                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WHATELY                 42.45N 72.62W
07/21/2010                   FRANKLIN           MA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON CHRISTIAN LANE.

0352 PM     HAIL             DEERFIELD               42.55N 72.60W
07/21/2010  E0.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME SIZE HAIL IN SOUTH DEERFIELD.

0403 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AMHERST                 42.38N 72.52W
07/21/2010                   HAMPSHIRE          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 63 NEAR LEVERETT LINE. ALSO POWER
            LINES DOWN ON ROUTE 202.

&&

FIELD

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