Tornado Warning 76, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

549 
WWUS55 KBOU 100116
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
716 PM MDT MON AUG 9 2010

COC075-087-121-100126-
/O.CAN.KBOU.TO.W.0076.000000T0000Z-100810T0130Z/
WASHINGTON CO-MORGAN CO-LOGAN CO-
716 PM MDT MON AUG 9 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN...NORTHEASTERN
MORGAN AND NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO 
LONGER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A TORNADO. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS 
ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 4050 10351 4046 10335 4029 10346 4033 10360
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 204DEG 18KT 4044 10347

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
310 PM MDT MON AUG 9 2010

.SHORT TERM...MAIN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CROSSING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO.  SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
JET IS MOVING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AT A 20 MPH CLIP...BUT
TRAINING OF STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE.  EARLIER TODAY...SKIES CLEARED BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE...WHICH GAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARMING ON THE PLAINS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZING AFTER 21Z WITH CAPE
VALUES JUMPING TO 1500-2000 J/KG DURING THE EVENING.  CURRENT LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG OVER WELD COUNTY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE CLIMBED TO
1.10-1.25 INCHES WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS FORECASTING VALUES AROUND 1.20
INCHES THROUGH THE EVENING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THE STORMS...GIVEN THE FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND 16500
FEET.  TRAINING OF STORMS WILL ALSO MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS
TO RECEIVE MORE THAN ONE EPISODE OF HEAVY RAIN.

BACK EDGE OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS
BY 06Z.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY DURING THE OVER NIGHT
HOURS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES OVER THE STATE.  MUCH DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON TUESDAY WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES JUMPING ABOVE +16C.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...LOCAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND DRY TUESDAY
NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVELS STABILIZE AND THE MEAN 700-500MB
FLOW ASSUMES A NEAR ZONAL COMPONENT WITH PASSAGE OF A FLAT SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. STG DIABATIC HEATING AND AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED LATE DAY T-STORM
COVERAGE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE HIGH MTN TERRAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WITH PREVAILING PW VALUES FALLING BELOW 0.70
INCH...ANY RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. AS FAR AS TEMPS...WITH
700MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 18.5C...SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS ON THE
PLAINS UP IN THE 90S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST. HIGH COUNTRY READINGS WILL RANGE FM THE 80S IN THE
VALLEYS TO THE 60S UP HIGH.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO SHIFTS EASTWARD BY HALF
A STATE ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING EXPELLED BY ONCE TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE CARRIED NORTH BY THIS FLOW REACHING NRN
COLORADO DURING THE DAY. PW VALUES JUMP AS THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF THE BANDED
T-STORM ACTIVITY WE EXPECT TO SEE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...
PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR. AS FOR TEMPS THAT
DAY...MID AND UPPER LVL ATMOSPHERE STILL QUITE WARM. MOS TEMP
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING MAX TEMP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ON
THE PLAINS. HOWEVER SHOULD CLOUD COVER DVLP SOONER THAN EXPECTED...
MAY NOT SEE TEMP MUCH ABOVE 90 DEGS. FOR NOW WILL HANG ONTO
LOWER 90S AS A RULE.

BY FRIDAY...A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE BEING
REPLACED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH QUICKLY DROPS SEWRD OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 700-500MB TEMPS COOL BY AT LEAST 2C DURING THE
DAY. THIS WOULD EQUATE TO A 3-5F DROP IN MAX SFC TEMPS. FURTHERMORE
THE MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE STATE RESULTING IN MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. PRECIP CHANCES ALMOST NIL EAST OF THE
MTNS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ONLY SEE ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO OUR EAST
OPENING THE DOOR TO A COUPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS SLIDING DOWN THE EAST
SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ESPLY EAST OF THE MTNS
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THRU THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES
ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SLIDE DURING THE PERIOD WITH AS
THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY DRIES OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE STATE.  AIRPORT AND
ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE GATES SHOULD BE IMPACTED THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING IN A NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION AT ABOUT
20 MPH.  UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR MULTIPLE WAVES
OF STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE METRO AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING.  MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO MODERATE-HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS.  DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER
THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS RETURNING TO
DRAINAGE PATTERN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

KDRBY/BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1107 AM MDT MON AUG 09 2010

COZ030>051-101200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1107 AM MDT MON AUG 09 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION
LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WHICH WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND A STILL MOIST AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH RATES UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN 30 MINUTES.  STORM MOTIONS
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE PASSAGE OF MORE THAN A SINGLE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS WEEK WITH
THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME. HOWEVER STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING MAY STILL MANAGE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO EVEN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN TERRAIN.  ANTICIPATE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE APPRECIATED.

DANKERS/BAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
609 PM MDT MON AUG 09 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             1 E GALETON             40.52N 104.56W
08/09/2010  M0.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COUNTY ROAD 51 BETWEEN CO392 AND WELD COUNTY RD 74--6 TO
            8 AREAS WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER ON ROAD. 2.53 INCHES
            MEASURED RAINFALL AT HIS LOCATION.

0451 PM     HEAVY RAIN       8 NE GALETON            40.60N 104.47W
08/09/2010  M1.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.75 INCHES IN 1 HOUR. WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH. PEA SIZE
            HAIL ALSO ACCOMPANIED STORM.

&&

BENTON