Tornado Warning 25, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
310 AM MDT WED MAY 26 2010

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER COLORADO TODAY
AND TONIGHT. BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY WILL BE HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND HAS BROUGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...SO THIS WILL SLOW
HEATING TODAY. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S PLUS CAPES OF
700 TO 1400 J/KG WILL YIELD SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THROW IN
DECENT SHEAR AND A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED
LANDSPOUT OR TORNADO CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT GIVEN THE VEERING
SHEAR PROFILE. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PLUS LOW CLOUDS SHIELDING
THE SURFACE THIS MORNING MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OR AT LEAST
DELAY IT UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND ENDING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...PROBABLY THE MOST NOTEWORTHY WEATHER DURING THE
UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE BIG WARMUP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LATEST MOS TEMP GUIDANCE IS INDICATING MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL ALSO FEEL THIS WARMUP. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING NIGHT TIME TEMPS UP AROUND
TIMBERLINE SHOULD ACCELERATE SNOW MELT RUNOFF RESULTING IN FAST AND
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN MTN STREAMS AND CREEKS.

AN ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION NEXT 48 HOURS DRIVES HOT GENERALLY DRY AIR UP FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT NOT ALL THAT STRONG BUT STRONG ENOUGH
TO GENERATE GUSTY S-SWLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AREAWIDE BOTH DAYS. SRN
FTHLS COULD SEE A BIT MORE WIND BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL FURTHER LOWER
RHS AND RAISE TEMPS EAST OF THE CONT DVD...CONSEQUENTLY ELEVATING
THE WILDLAND FIRE DANGER. CAN'S RULE OUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING T-STORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE. BY SATURDAY A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN TROUGH
PROPAGATING EASTWARD OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKY MTN REGION. THEY
ALSO SHOW A STAND UP PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWINGING OUT OF THE MTNS AND
ACROSS NERN COLORADO LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY SAT EVENING. ITS
ALONG THIS FNTL BNDRY THAT WE COULD SEE SCATTERED T-STORMS A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS THIS
FRONTAL BNDRY COLLIDES WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SELY BNDRY LAYER
FLOW OUT NEAR THE ERN BORDER. STRONG SFC-500MB SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FNTL BNDRY COULD AGAIN PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STG AND
VERY GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ON THE
ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BY SUNDAY...SYSTEM MOVES
OUT AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS MOVES IN FM THE WEST WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH 15Z AND
THEN DISSIPATE. CEILING WILL GENERALLY RUN 1000 TO 2000 FEET UNDER
THE LOW CLOUDS AND MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW 1000 FEET. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...AFTER 18Z SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM 20Z-02Z. WIND GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

MEIER/BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1047 AM MDT WED MAY 26 2010

COZ030>051-271200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1047 AM MDT WED MAY 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MOIST AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY WHICH WILL
BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES.  WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALOFT ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 1 PM...INITIALLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE
THREAT OF TORNADOS ALSO EXISTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.  ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT
FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.  DRIER WEATHER SHOULD THEN PREVAIL SUNDAY
AND MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS RETURNS TO MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DANKERS/BARJENBRUCH