Special Weather Statement, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
242 PM MDT SUN JUL 18 2010

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER HIGH OVER ARIZONA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
COLORADO.  WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES HIDDEN IN THE FLOW IN COMBINATION
WITH MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW DAILY THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP TODAY AND TO A LESSER EXTEND MONDAY.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN RAPIDLY PROLIFERATING OVER THE FOOTHILLS FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO
TO SOUTHERN WYOMING.  THERE WILL A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO THIS EVENING...AS DEWPOINTS ABOVE 60
DEGREES PERSIST THERE.  ELSEWHERE WITH GOOD STORM MOVEMENT...HIGH
CLOUD BASES WILL GET GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...AND ONLY A SHORT BURST OF
RAIN.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SOUTH OF COLORADO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY.  ON WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER RIDGE STAYS WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA.  WEAK UPPER TROUGHING IS INDICATED TO OUR
NORTH THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIODS.  THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE BENIGN ENERGY THROUGH THE PERIODS.  THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROGGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS A WEAK
SURGE OF COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...THEN STAY AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY.  FOR
MOISTURE...IT INCREASES AT MOST LEVELS AND CONTINUES PRETTY MOIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MODELS HAVE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS INCREASING
FROM EAST TO WEST MONDAY NIGHT.  FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
...DEW POINT READINGS ARE PROGGED IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND
LOWER FOOTHILLS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.85 TO 1.20
INCH RANGE MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VALUES ARE
PROGGED IN THE 1.10 TO 1.60 INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.  BOTH MODELS HAVE A PRETTY DECENT THETA-E
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIODS.  THERE IS PRETTY DECENT CAPE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN OVER ALL
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR LATE DAY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.  THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL
CAPPING THROUGH THE PERIODS.  MODELS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL MONDAY EVENING...MORE SO ON THE NAM.  THERE IS A BIT MORE
FOR LATE DAY TUESDAY...BUT NOT MUCH AS FAR AS COVERAGE GOES.  THERE
IS MORE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INDICATED FOR LATE DAY WEDNESDAY.
SO FOR POPS...CLEARLY THE MOISTURE GETS BETTER...BUT NOT SURE ABOUT
THE LACK OF COOLING ALOFT.  THERE IS UPSLOPE PROGGED AS WELL.  WILL
GO WITH OR KEEP IN...MAINLY..."CHANCES" FOR BOTH LATE DAY TUESDAY
AND LATE DAY WEDNESDAY.  FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY'S HIGHS ARE
AROUND 10 C COLDER THAN MONDAY'S HIGHS ACCORDING TO THE NAM...WITH
THE GFS HAVING ONLY A 2-4 C COOL DOWN.  WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSE TO TUESDAY'S.  FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
...THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED AROUND ARKANSAS ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  A SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER RIDGE MOVES BACK INTO THE STATE
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  MOISTURE STILL SEEMS OK...SO WILL KEEP
SOME MINOR POPS MENTIONED FOR THE "LATE IN THE DAY" PERIODS.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE FOOTHILLS
TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 KNOTS UNTIL EARLY
EVENING...THEN MOVE EAST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

RTG/RJK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1036 AM MDT SUN JUL 18 2010

COZ030>051-191200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1036 AM MDT SUN JUL 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH...SPORADIC LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN. BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR ALL THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN ON
MONDAY...THEN COOL TO NEAR NORMALS FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RTG/RJK

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