Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
322 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER UTAH AND
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...IT
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WYOMING AND BY 12Z TUESDAY IT WILL NEARLY BE IN
CANADA. AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL
BRING A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING AND THEN A STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE
TODAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY NOON AND THEN TO THE WEST BY 00Z. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE BROUGHT MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WILL QUICKLY BE SWEPT
OUT BY THE DRIER SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. WILL SEE VERY
GOOD MIXING TODAY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...THUS IT WILL BE EASY
TO MIX THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN. WINDS SPEEDS LOOK TO BE
SUSTAINED IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS.
BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE IT WILL TAKE THE COOLER AIR LONGER TO REACH AND HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE LOW SIDE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS IS WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
COLORADO MAY SEE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
SHOULD HANG ON UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON AND CAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
1000 J/KG. BIGGEST QUESTION CONCERNING THE CONVECTION IS CAN IT
BREAK THE CAP BEFORE THE DRY AIR MOVES IN.

THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING.
AIRMASS WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS.
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN FM YESTERDAY.  COLORADO WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH A TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE CWFA.  DRIEST AMS WILL BE OVER THE MTNS.  SELY SFC
WINDS OVER THE PLAINS WILL USHER IN INCRG BOUNDARY LYR MSTR LATE
TUESDAY AFTN/EVNG.  BEST CHC OF TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN WILL BE IN THE
VICNITY OF THE PALMER DIVIDE.  ONLY CHANGE TO TUESDAY WAS TO HOLD
OFF TSTMS FOR ZONES 44..45 AND 49 UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.  INTERACTIVE
SOUNDINGS KEEPS THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL BE MODERATING UPWARDS TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY...SO THE
BEST CHC OF TSTMS WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING.  ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY LYR MSTR OVERNIGHT TO ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AS
WELL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  NO SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY...SO THE PATTERN WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN.  THERE WILL STILL
BE ENUF MSTR AROUND TO INCLUDE THE SLGT CHC OF TSTMS EACH
AFTN/EVNG.  THIS ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS TO NO CHANGES NEEDED
FOR THE LATER PERIODS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
14Z. IF ANY LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE IN THE 1500 TO 3000
FOOT RANGE. THE BIGGEST ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOUTHWEST BY MID
MORNING AND THEN TO THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS
AND GUSTS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS. AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

MEIER/COOPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1211 PM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

COZ030>051-251200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1211 PM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

...TORNADO WATCH FOR LOGAN...SEDGWICK...PHILLIPS AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 7PM MDT THIS EVENING...

...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NORTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL 7PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF FORT MORGAN TO LIMON LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE IN THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WHERE THERE WILL BE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR.
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST
CORNER. THE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE STORMS WILL END BY THE EVENING.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 70 MPH. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 30 TO
40 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 60 MPH
ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE APPRECIATED.

D-L/KREIDERMAN

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