Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

535 
WWUS85 KBOU 011829
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1229 PM MDT THU APR 1 2010

COZ246-247-249-020200-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100402T0200Z/
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
WASHINGTON COUNTY-
INCLUDING...AGATE...HUGO...LIMON...MATHESON...FORDER...KARVAL...
KUTCH...PUNKIN CENTER...AKRON...COPE...LAST CHANCE...OTIS
1229 PM MDT THU APR 1 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES...
IN COLORADO...246...247...249

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
SPREAD ANY ONGOING FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE
OFFICIALS AND FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

536 
WWUS85 KBOU 020203
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
803 PM MDT THU APR 1 2010

COZ246-247-249-020315-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100402T0200Z/
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
WASHINGTON COUNTY-
INCLUDING...AGATE...HUGO...LIMON...MATHESON...FORDER...KARVAL...
KUTCH...PUNKIN CENTER...AKRON...COPE...LAST CHANCE...OTIS
803 PM MDT THU APR 1 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
COOLED WITH HUMIDITIES IMPROVING CONSIDERABLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EVENING.

THIS INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES...IN
COLORADO...246...247...249


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
312 AM MDT THU APRIL 1 2010

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.  FOR THE MTNS SW FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING
WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WLY COMPONENT BY 18Z AND THEN MORE WNW
LATER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT AS MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS.  SOME
QG ASCENT IS SHOWN THRU THE AFTN HOURS AND WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE
7-8 C/KM RANGE SHOULD SEE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE IN THE MTNS DURING
THE AFTN AND CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT.  OVERALL WIND SPEEDS AT MTN TOP
ARE NOT REAL STG SO LOOKS LIKE MOST AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY BLO ADVISORY
CRITERIA EXCEPT POSSIBLE IN ZN 31.

OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTN IS WILL WHERE WILL
MAIN SFC LOW DVLP OVER NERN CO.  RUC AND 00Z NAM KEPT MAIN LOW
CLOSER TO THE CO-WY BORDER WHILE LATEST 06Z NAM HAS LOW FURTHER
SOUTH NEAR DENVER.  AS A RESULT THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ON FCST ESPECIALLY FROM DENVER NORTH TO THE WY BORDER IF THAT WERE
TO OCCUR.  MEANWHILE LATEST 06Z RUC KEEPS MAIN SFC LOW FURTHER NORTH
LIKE PREVIOUS 00Z NAM SHOWED.  NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS SHOULD SEE
GUSTY SWLY WINDS DVLP OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING THRU AFTN
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FIRE DANGER FM AKRON SOUTH TO LIMON WHERE
DEWPOINTS MAY MIX INTO THE TEENS BY AFTN.  WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THESE AREAS FROM 18Z-02Z.  CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS FCST
WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION ON MAIN SFC LOW.  IF LOW ENDS UP FURTHER
SOUTH CLOSER TO DENVER THEN LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND NR THE NRN
FOOTHILLS WILL HAVE MORE OF A NELY COMPONENT AND AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THIS AFTN PCPN SO CHANCES WOULD INCREASE QUITE A
BIT.  HOWEVER IF LOW ENDS END UP FURTHER NORTH THEN BEST CHC OF PCPN
WOULD LIKELY STAY MAINLY NR THE CO-WY BORDER.  FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHC POPS FM FORT COLLINS NORTHWARD WITH LOWER POPS SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS DENVER AND THE PALMER DIVIDE.  WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 8-9
C/KM RANGE COULD SEE SOME ISOLD THUNDER AS WELL.  FOR TONIGHT LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A MORE WNW COMPONENT WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NERN CO.  COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER EARLY IN THE EVENING HOWEVER AS
DOWNWARD DESCENT INCREASES ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT PCPN
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN OVER NERN CO WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON LOCATION OF MAIN SFC LOW.  WARMEST READINGS
SHOULD BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS WHERE SWLY LOW LVL WINDS WILL BLOW
WHILE THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE ALONG THE WY-CO BORDER AREA .

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED FOR FRIDAY EVENING.  BY SATURDAY...STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BECOMING WESTERLY BY SATURDAY
EVENING.  BY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12Z...A WESTERLY JET MAXIMUM IS
PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SPEEDS AROUND 120 KNOTS.  THERE
IS SOME UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGGED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING.  BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ALL
FRIDAY NIGHT...DOWNWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IS PROGGED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS BENIGN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WINDS FIELDS SHOW NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ON FRIDAY.  BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS SHOULD PREVAIL.  ON SATURDAY...THERE
IS LOW LEVEL TROUGHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  ON SATURDAY NIGHT IT
WILL LIKELY BE BACK TO NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.  FOR MOISTURE...
MODELS ARE SHOWING IT TO DECREASE ON FRIDAY.  THE NAM HAS POOR
MOISTURE OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A BIT IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE MOUNTAINS.  THE GFS HAS FAIRLY
SHALLOW MOUNTAINS MOISTURE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A BIT IN
THE MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.  BOTH MODELS HAVE DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE DECREASES IN THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER ALL THE FORECAST AREA ON BOTH MODELS.  THE GFS QPF
FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...NONE ON THE NAM.  BOTH HAVE A TAD IN THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  FOR POPS...WILL GO 10%-20%S
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  WILL KEEP THE "RAIN SHOWERS" AS
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
IN MIND.  THERE IS NO CAPE ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS
...THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE MOUNTAIN TOP WIND DIRECTION PROGGS IN MIND.
WILL GO "CHANCE" FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH "SLIGHT CHANCE" FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY HIGHS ARE 4-8 C
COLDER THAN TODAY'S EXPECTED READINGS.  SATURDAY'S HIGHS WARM-UP 4-7
C FROM SATURDAY'S.  FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY.  THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  THE ECMWF DOES NOT
BRING THIS FEATURE ACROSS UNTIL WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
MORE MODEL RUNS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SO WILL GO SOME MINOR POPS IN
THE HIGH COUNTY ONLY...FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DRY ON THE
PLAINS FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE WHOLE FCST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE SFC
LOW SETS UP THRU THIS AFTN.  IF LOW ENDS UP FURTHER NORTH LIKE RUC
AND 00Z NAM SHOW THEN GUSTY SWLY SFC WINDS WOULD DVLP LATER THIS
MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN AND THEN BECOME MORE WNW BY MID TO LATE
AFTN.  IF LOW SETS UP CLOSER TO THE AIRPORT LIKE 06Z NAM SHOWS
WINDS SWLY MAY NOT BE NEARLY AS STG FM LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN
WITH WINDS NOT INCREASING UNTIL MID AFTN BEFORE QUICKLY SWITCHING TO
A MORE WNW COMPONENT.  AS FAR AS PCPN RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BEST
CHC THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WOULD STAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE AIRPORT.  ENOUGH INSTABILITY WL EXIST FOR SOME ISOLD
CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AIRPORT.  FOR TONIGHT ANY PCPN
SHOULD QUICKLY END BY EARLY EVENING.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF GUSTY WNW
WINDS THRU 03Z AND THEN HAVE THEM GRADUALLY DECREASE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON
THROUGH 8 PM FOR FIRE WEATHER ZNS 246..247 AND 249.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZN 31.

RPK/RJK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1104 AM MDT WED MAR 31 2010

COZ030>051-011200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1104 AM MDT WED MAR 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 50
MPH OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGH PASSES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS
AND ALONG THE COLORADO...WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT BE AS WARM TODAY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
AFFECTS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN MOUNTAIN
AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WHEREAS THE PLAINS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO CAN EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MEIER/BAKER