Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

709 
WGUS75 KBOU 292023
FFSBOU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
223 PM MDT THU JUL 29 2010

COC035-292130-
/O.CON.KBOU.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-100729T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DOUGLAS CO-
223 PM MDT THU JUL 29 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...

AT 221 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED EAST OF THE HAYMAN BURN AREA.  TOTAL 
RAINFALL ESTIMATES WITHIN THE BURN AREA AROUND WEST CREEK WERE 
1.5 TO 2 INCHES.  

LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WESTCREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY AS THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A
FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR
VEHICLE. TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 10510 3913 10522 3923 10525 3928 10517

$$

283 
WGUS75 KBOU 292122
FFSBOU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
322 PM MDT THU JUL 29 2010

COC035-292131-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-100729T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DOUGLAS CO-
322 PM MDT THU JUL 29 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM MDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS EXITED THE AREA.  THERE MAY 
STILL BE SOME RUNOFF ALONG WEST CREEK...SO RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO 
BE VIGILANT AND DRIVE WITH CARE.  

LAT...LON 3913 10510 3913 10522 3923 10525 3928 10517

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
250 AM MDT THU JUL 29 2010

.SHORT TERM...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS WITH WEAK
FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.  ONCE
AGAIN TODAY THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE IN THE MTNS...HIGHER
VALLEYS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN
ABOVE 1.3 INCHES ACCORDING TO IPW DATA AND WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.  SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WITH ANY STORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL HAVE TO RELY
ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  ON WED
ACTIVITY WAS PRETTY LIMITED OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AS A WEAK CAP
LIMITED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO CAP BY MID TO
LATE AFTN SO WE SHALL SEE IF THERE IS MORE ACTIVITY TODAY VERSUS
YESTERDAY.  IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY TOO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AS WELL.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS A CAP IS SHOWN THIS AFTN AND
EVENING SO ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY ISOLD AT THIS
POINT.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY OVER
THE PLAINS BASED ON LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF CENTERS TO THIS RIDGE...ONE OVER
COLORADO...THE OTHER OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.  FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER IS SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO
WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGED FOR THE FORECAST AREA IS BENIGN
THROUGH THE PERIODS.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.  SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE IS PRETTY GOOD THROUGH
THE PERIODS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE THAN THE NAM.  THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE MID 40S F
WEST TO THE UPPER 50S EAST ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 1.00 TO 1.30 INCH RANGE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS A THETA-E AXIS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIODS.  IT IS MAINLY OVER OUR
MOUNTAINS.  THERE IS SOME CAPE PROGGED FOR LATE DAY FRIDAY...IT'S
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT VALUES ARE
UNDER 1500 J/KG.  FOR LATE DAY SATURDAY...THERE IS LESS IN ALL
AREAS.  LAPSE RATE FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID LEVEL CAPPING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIODS.  THE GFS QPF FIELDS HAVE PLENTY OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIODS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS.  THE NAM HAS JUST A TAD...WITH LESS OVERALL COVERAGE
AS WELL.  FOR POPS...PERSISTENCE SEEMS LIKE A GOOD TOOL THESE
DAYS...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER STAYS OVER THE CWA ALONG
WITH THE LACK OF...EVEN SLIGHT...COOLING ALOFT.  BEST POPS WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BARELY ANY OVER THE PLAINS.  FOR
TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY'S HIGHS ARE 0-2 C COOLER THAN TODAY'S EXPECTED
HIGHS.  SATURDAY'S HIGHS NOW LOOK WARMER THAN FRIDAY'S...SOME 1-2 C
WARMER.  THIS IS A CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.  FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS KEEP
THE UPPER RIDGE AROUND THROUGH THE PERIODS...WITH THE CENTER OF IT
TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO.  MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK DENVER CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF DENVER WITH
SOME STRATUS OVER THE PLAINS.  BOTH RUC AND NAM KEEP ANY STRATUS
THRU 15Z WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRPORT SO WILL NOT MENTION IN
THE TAF.  FOR THIS AFTN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM TSTMS IN THE FOOTHILLS
MAY HELP GENERATE SOME STORMS IN THE 22Z TO 02Z PERIOD MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME IN HEAVY RAINFALL.  WINDS THI AFTN SHOULD BE MAINLY SSE UNTIL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS AND SHIFT WINDS BRIEFLY TO THE NW.
BY THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD BECOME SSW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

RPK/RJK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1054 AM MDT THU JUL 29 2010

COZ030>051-301200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1054 AM MDT THU JUL 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE PLAINS...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN SOME AREAS.
THE STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT BUT RAINFALL
REPORTS WILL BE APPRECIATED.

D-L/SWE