Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Boise, ID

288 
WWUS55 KBOI 300050
SVSBOI

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
650 PM MDT TUE JUN 29 2010

ORC045-300115-
/O.CON.KBOI.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-100630T0115Z/
MALHEUR OR-
650 PM MDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY...

AT 640 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF HARPER...OR 31 MILES WEST OF PARMA...AND WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HARPER...SOUTH MOUNTAIN AND RUFINO BUTTE AROUND 650 PM MDT...
  LITTLE VALLEY AND WESTFALL AROUND 655 PM MDT...
  BUCKGRUSH POISON BUTTE AND BRUSHY HOLLOW AROUND 705 PM MDT...
  BULLY CREEK RESERVOIR AND SUGARLOAF BUTTE AROUND 710 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AND NORTHEAST OREGON.

&&

LAT...LON 4418 11789 4412 11731 4347 11769 4358 11789
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 208DEG 33KT 4383 11750

$$

SKARI

179 
WWUS55 KBOI 300108
SVSBOI

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
708 PM MDT TUE JUN 29 2010

ORC045-300117-
/O.EXP.KBOI.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-100630T0115Z/
MALHEUR OR-
708 PM MDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 715 PM MDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS
WEAKENED.  THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 715 PM
MDT.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL OCCUR IN THE
AREA...SO YOU SHOULD REMAIN CAUTIOUS AND ALERT FOR MORE POTENTIAL
SEVERE STORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU OBSERVED ANY HAIL...STRONG WINDS...WIND DAMAGE...OR TORNADOES
WITH THIS STORM...PLEASE CALL LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND ASK THEM TO
RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BOISE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AND NORTHEAST OREGON.

&&

LAT...LON 4418 11789 4412 11731 4347 11769 4358 11789
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 208DEG 33KT 4398 11739

$$

SKARI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID...UPDATED FOR WATCH BOX
322 PM MDT TUE JUN 29 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SENT OUT THE LATEST
FORECAST PACKAGE EARLY SO THAT I COULD INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX.  WATCH BOX COVERS
GEM...PAYETTE...WASHINGTON...ADAMS...BOISE AND VALLEY COUNTIES IN
IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY IN OREGON.  THE WATCH BOX IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
05Z.  CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER OVER IDAHO HAS LIMITED SURFACE HEATING BUT
CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TWIN FALLS
COUNTY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AND
THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE WIND BUT WILL ALSO SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
THE CASCADES AND ARRIVES AT THE WESTERN IDAHO BORDER BY 00Z SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO TAP INTO ANY MONSOON MOISTURE...BASED
ON GFS ISENTROPIC PROGS. MODELS SHOW ONLY MODERATE RH ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...FOLLOWED BY MARKED DRYING IN THE TROUGH. MODEL BC BLENDS
YIELD RELATIVELY LOW POPS CONCENTRATED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH STAYS OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY WARMS... TAPPING ONLY ENOUGH
PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING
MONDAY...THEREFORE LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HEIGHTS REBOUND BEHIND THE LOW
AND THE ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT
WILL BUILD IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS QUESTION APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DESPITE
MOST GUIDANCE BEING WELL BELOW CLIMO...WENT WITH MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MONDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WHICH WAS WELL
DEPICTED IN THE 12Z ECMWF RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED VFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONGEST CONVECTION
WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF BOISE...AND FROM KTWF
TO THE NV BORDER...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KTS...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SW TO NW 10-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 35 KTS AT 12K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....JT/BB
AVIATION.....JT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
708 AM MDT TUE JUN 29 2010

IDZ011>014-033-ORZ062-064-301315-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ID-BOISE MOUNTAINS-
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY-UPPER WEISER RIVER-BAKER COUNTY-
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY OR-
708 AM MDT TUE JUN 29 2010 /608 AM PDT TUE JUN 29 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IDAHO...WEST CENTRAL IDAHO...NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL IDAHO TODAY. THIS
INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING BOISE MCCALL IDAHO CITY AND BAKER CITY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS OF AT LEAST 60 MILES
PER HOUR AND...OR LARGE HAIL OF ONE INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER.
IN ADDITION TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE ... INFORMATION ABOUT SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY BE OBTAINED AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV WHICH IS THE
NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT.

IDZ015-016-028>030-ORZ061-063-301315-
SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY-CAMAS PRAIRIE-
OWYHEE MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY-HARNEY COUNTY-
MALHEUR COUNTY-
708 AM MDT TUE JUN 29 2010 /608 AM PDT TUE JUN 29 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT.