Wind Advisory 7, NWS Birmingham, AL

Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marion County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
348 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COUPLE OF DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW. WINDS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE ON THE BREEZY SIDE AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT...AND BY FAR THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE...WILL BE THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF SYSTEM HASN'T REALLY
CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE GFS AND EUROS
TIMING AS THEY ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WHEREAS THE NAM
SOLUTION IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HAS BROUGHT THE TRACK
OF THE LOW FARTHER NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS EXPECTED FROM THE GFS...SO
IN RESPONSE TO THE CHANGES IN THE TRACK...THE MOISTURE WILL BE
TRANSPORTED FARTHER NORTH AS WELL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY A
SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE THICKNESS VALUES...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH AS WARMER TEMPS COULD
MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER PART OF THE
REGION. IF MODELS CONTINUE THE NORTHWARD TREND THEN THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL SET UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND IT COULD
END UP BEING AN ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH. BUT FOR
NOW JUST GOING TO KEEP SNOW WORDING IN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMICAL COOLING EFFECTS TO END UP DICTATING THE
EVENT OUTCOME. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL LIKELY SET UP SOMEWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAND...ALONG
WITH MANY OTHER THINGS...WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHERE THE TRACK OF THE
LOW WILL BE. RIGHT NOW WOULD HAVE TO THINK THAT BAND WOULD SET UP
BETWEEN BHM AND MGM. DEFINITELY GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR EVEN THE SMALLEST OF CHANGES IN THE
FORECASTED TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ONCE AGAIN...AS WITH ALL SYSTEMS...THE MESOSCALE
DETAILS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO DECIDED
NOT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

19

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THERE ARE A FEW COLD AIR STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS BEING OBSERVED AND
DETECTED IN NORTHERN MS AND AL.  THESE COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE A COUPLE
CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF SITES TO HAVE BKN-OVC CONDITIONS...WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET. BUT I THINK THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION
WILL BE CLEAR TO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

WIND GUSTINESS WILL COME AND GO THROUGH ABOUT 10/1400Z...REALLY KICK
IN AGAIN AT THAT TIME THROUGH 11/0000Z...AND THEN DIMINISH
SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER THAT.

/61/

REMINDER NOTE: WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE LINE (AMD LTD TO VIS
WIND AND WX) FOR KEET DUE TO CONTINUED CONCERN OVER THE CEILOMETER.
THE CEILOMETER WILL BE IN TESTING PHASE THROUGH FEBRUARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     38  24  46  26  36 /   0   0  10  10  40
ANNISTON    41  22  47  27  36 /   0   0  10  10  50
BIRMINGHAM  39  23  47  27  36 /   0   0  10  20  50
TUSCALOOSA  43  26  48  28  37 /   0   0  10  20  50
CALERA      41  25  48  28  37 /   0   0  10  20  50
AUBURN      45  22  50  29  38 /   0   0  10  10  60
MONTGOMERY  46  27  50  30  37 /   0   0  10  20  70
TROY        46  25  50  30  38 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

19/61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-110000-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
628 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS ON THE LOWER TOMBIGBEE ARE DROPPING...BUT WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...AND A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED ON THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY.  TIMING HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...BUT THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND HOW COLD IT WILL BE IS
STILL IN QUESTION.  CHECK BACK FREQUENTLY FOR THE LATEST ON POTENTIAL
WINTER WEATHER FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

61