Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
332 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR I-65 IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS ALL DIURNAL AND SHOULD WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY GONE BY 9 PM THIS
EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY THE SURFACE TROF WILL PUSH WESTWARD ALONG WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. THIS WILL CREATE STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO MAINLY THE WESTERN
PART OF ALABAMA. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE NAM MODEL DOES SHOW A
WEAK SURFACE TROF FORMING NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA STATE LINE
ON MONDAY...AND PRODUCES SOME CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...WILL
FAVOR GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THAT KEEP CONVECTION WEST OF I-65. NOT
MUCH CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AND CAPS CONVECTION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S ON TUESDAY...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ISOLATED CONVECTION DESPITE UPPER RIDGE.

HEAT INDICES WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE WEEK...
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW POINTS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TWO SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING IMPROVING RAIN CHANCES DURING
THIS PERIOD. A EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THE EASTERLY WAVE OR TROPICAL LOW WILL RIDE
ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY AND PRESENCE
OF RIDGE WILL CUT-OFF MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING INLAND....AND
KEPT ONLY SMALL RAIN CHANCES. A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING DOWN THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PUSH UPPER RIDGE CENTER WESTWARD
TOWARDS TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
TO WORK UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO
ALABAMA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...THE MOISTURE WILL
GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AS IS MENTIONED IN DISCUSSION ABOVE...HIGH PW AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE NW THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF STATE WILL MOVE LITTLE FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA...WITH HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE SW
PORTION OF THE STATE. CIGS WITH DEVELOPING CU/PRECIP WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3KFT. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED INCREASED COVERAGE DURING AFT DUE
TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW MOVING TO THE SE. STORMS WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AND WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...MVFR TO IFR
BR WILL OCCUR AFT 06Z...ESPECIALLY AT THOSE AIRPORTS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.  STEFKOVICH

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE CEILOMETER
DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR
ACCURACY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  97  72  99  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    72  97  73  98  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  75  97  76  98  77 /  20  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  74  99  73 100  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
CALERA      73  96  75  98  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      72  96  74  97  75 /  20  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  97  75  99  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
TROY        72  97  72  96  74 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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