Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
254 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A MODERATE TO
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS WITH THESE STORMS. SPC STILL HAS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY...WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING WIND DAMAGE. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SE
MISSOURI...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS MCS SOUTH SOUTHEAST
INTO N AL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME STRONGER
STORMS WITH THIS COMPLEX AS IT INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND
AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES. THE GREATER CHANCES WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE TN VALLEY.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM...AS THE STUBBORN RIDGE
REFUSES TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

19

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY HEAT INDUCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ACTIVITY MAINLY NRN SECTIONS OF C AL DUE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
MOVING CURRENTLY ACROSS IL/TN AREAS THROUGH THE NW FLOW. FOR NOW
CB/S IN AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AT THIS TIME
BUT VERY UNSTABLE SO COULD BE STRONG. OUTSIDE OF TSRA ACTIVITY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG AT TCL AIDED BY THE RIVER PROXIMITY.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WHILE CEILOMETER DATA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

08/MNK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  71  95  70 /  20  20  20  20  20
ANNISTON    69  95  69  94  69 /  20  20  20  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  69  95  70  94  70 /  20  20  20  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  95  71  95  70 /  20  30  20  20  20
CALERA      70  94  71  93  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
AUBURN      69  96  69  93  69 /  20  20  20  30  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  73  94  72 /  20  20  20  30  20
TROY        71  96  71  94  71 /  20  20  20  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

19/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1225 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-181800-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1225 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DIURNAL HEAT INDUCED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH AROUND 8 PM ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH OR GREATER...AS WELL AS DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 6 PM AS THE RESULT OF A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA.
DAMAGING WIND...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL COULD
RESULT FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

08/MNK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
432 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

ALZ017-172200-
BLOUNT AL-
432 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BLOUNT COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM CDT...

AT 431 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR LOCUST FORK...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLEVELAND...
MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ALLGOOD AROUND 440 PM CDT.
DALLAS AROUND 450 PM CDT.
CLEAR SPRINGS AROUND 455 PM CDT.
REMLAP AND HOLLY SPRINGS AROUND 500 PM CDT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
445 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

ALZ014-015-172245-
WALKER-WINSTON-
445 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WALKER AND WINSTON COUNTIES UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

AT 440 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A CLUSTER
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MCDOWELL CAMP GROUNDS...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ARLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  MCDOWELL CAMP GROUNDS.
  FALLS CITY.
  LAKE SHORE.
  WALKER COUNTY AIRPORT.
  CURRY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

08/MNK