Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  ONE SPOKE OF ENERGY IS ROTATING
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL MOVE INTO INLAND AND
INTO SOUTH ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.  THE AIR MASS TODAY IS WARMER
ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY...SO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AT
THIS TIME...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION TO DEAL WITH AT 18Z. THE FIRST DEVELOPED
AROUND TCL AT 12Z...AND HAS PROPAGATED EASTWARD ACROSS EET AND
BHM...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT ANB WITHIN THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF
THE FORECAST. THE NEXT BATCH OF STORMS HAS PUSHED INLAND FROM THE
GULF COAST...AND WILL IMPACT THE TOI AND MGM AREAS BY 2000Z. IN
BETWEEN THE RAIN AREAS...CEILINGS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME (ADMITTEDLY HARD TO
FORECAST/ACCOUNT FOR) THIN SPOTS IN THE LOW OVERCAST.

STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WHICH MEANS THEY ARE ALSO
VERY EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VISIBILITY -- DOWN TO A HALF MILE IN THE
CORES OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MODELS AGAIN PICK UP ON STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. MY FORECAST
(ISSUED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY) FOR THIS MORNING DIDN'T GO LOW
ENOUGH ON THE CEILINGS. MODEL OUTPUT FOR TONIGHT SHOWS SIMILAR
CONDITIONS...SO I AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE SUB-1000 FOOT CEILINGS
STARTING AFTER 31/0600Z.

/61/

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WHILE CEILOMETER DATA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1227 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

ALZ026-301815-
ST. CLAIR-
1227 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR ST. CLAIR COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

AT 1226 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF ODENVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
108 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

ALZ017-026-301900-
BLOUNT-ST. CLAIR-
108 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BLOUNT AND ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL
200 PM CDT...

AT 107 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF ASHVILLE...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ODENVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
120 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

ALZ043-044-301900-
ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-
120 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR ELMORE AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL
200 PM CDT...

AT 116 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLUE RIDGE...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF WETUMPKA...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  TALLAPOOSA RIVER WATER PLANT.
  BLUE RIDGE.
  WETUMPKA.
  CLAUD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27