Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
522 AM CST THU FEB 18 2010

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WARM QUICKLY DUE
TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WEAKENING COLD AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS TODAY
WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...BUT THE TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY
FRIDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWING AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER
EXTREME NORTH ALABAMA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED AND EXPECT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF I-20.
MAIN SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PUSHES QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL HELP PULL GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH ALABAMA AT
NIGHT...THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. MAIN CHANGE
TO FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCE SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND RAIN SHOULD BE
MOSTLY OUT OF AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
INVADE AREA AGAIN BEHIND FRONT...BUT CERTAINLY NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS OUTBREAKS. COLDER AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

REMINDER NOTE: WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE LINE (AMD LTD TO VIS
WIND AND WX) FOR KEET DUE TO CONTINUED CONCERN OVER THE CEILOMETER.
THE CEILOMETER WILL BE IN TESTING PHASE THROUGH FEBRUARY.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS
GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPS COMBINED
WITH LOW DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S
FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
BURN CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING HUMIDITIES AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  24  57  25  55 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    52  28  58  27  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  51  28  57  33  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  54  26  59  32  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      53  29  57  31  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      51  28  59  33  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  57  28  60  33  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        56  25  61  27  65 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM NOON TO
5 PM TODAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
600 AM CST THU FEB 18 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-191200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
600 AM CST THU FEB 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON UNTIL 5 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.