Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
243 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...

A HEAT WAVE IS NOW COMMENCING IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S ARE BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN BETTER...MOST OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES NEAR 30 DEGREES.

LOOKING AT SATELLITE LOW BEGINNING TO WRAP UP PRETTY GOOD OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND
SWING TOWARD SOUTHERN ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA...IT WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASE THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT ALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTH AND THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...NAM...AND EURO ALL HAVE
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WARMER AIRMASS TO WORK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SO HAVE
INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE MODEL PLACEMENT...WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER TO THE
WEST AND THE GFS THE OUTLIER TO THE EAST. THE EURO IS THE BLEND OF
THE TWO. IN FACT THE EURO HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
6 DAYS. MOST EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...SO HAVE UPPED POPS TO NEARLY
100 PERCENT EVERYWHERE. THE ONE THING TO BE CONCERNED OF WILL THE
CHANCE OF A DRY SLOT WORKING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH. MAY HAVE TO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE WEATHER AS THIS WORKS
THROUGH. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BLUSTERY WITH THE LOW AND A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.  THE RAIN SHOULD BE
ENDING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO WHAT PERIOD IS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. FOR
THIS RUN WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON PERIODS. WILL KEEP EVERYTHING HIGH CHANCE FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NEED HIGHER POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. WENT
CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF EURO GIVEN ITS CONSISTENT MANNER OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. DESPITE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WE SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS.

16

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN AND LOWER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. INTRODUCED LOWERED
CEILINGS INTO THE TAF AT MGM AND TOI AROUND THE 10 TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME...AND A FEW HOURS LATER FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. ALSO BEGAN LIGHT RAIN
AND GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT MGM AND TOI BY 12Z...AND BY 15 TO
16Z FOR NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT ARE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE NORTH HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE DEWPOINTS RISE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...SO QUESTIONS IN
REGARDS TO RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REALLY HINGE ON THIS NEXT HOUR. IT
APPEARS THAT DEWPOINTS WILL GO BACK UP A DEGREE OR TWO AT
TUSCALOOSA...WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. IT WILL BE
BORDERLINE ON CRITERIA. AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST JUST DROPPED BELOW 25
PERCENT AT 2 PM AND WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO DROP. MAY NEED TO
ADD A FEW COUNTIES AT A VERY LAST MINUTE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     29  55  46  51  36 /  10  90 100  50  10
ANNISTON    36  57  47  51  35 /  10  90 100  50  10
BIRMINGHAM  38  56  44  52  36 /  10  90 100  50  10
TUSCALOOSA  39  57  46  56  36 /  10  90 100  30  10
CALERA      40  57  46  54  37 /  10  90 100  40  10
AUBURN      43  55  48  53  36 /  20 100 100  40  10
MONTGOMERY  43  60  49  57  39 /  20 100 100  30  10
TROY        42  60  50  56  40 /  30 100  80  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
121 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-161230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
121 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WINDS COULD BE STRONG AND GUSTY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH. A FEW
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

75