Red Flag Warning 35, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
357 AM CST SAT NOV 13 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A BATTLE OF THE AIR MASSES TODAY WITH A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
EAST. FOR ALABAMA...THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL WIN OUT TODAY AS
SURFACE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER MISSISSIPPI AND DRIER AIR KEEPS
ALABAMA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FROM
GEORGIA IS ALSO SLIGHTLY COOLER...AND HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER MOST AREAS DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE. THE DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS EAST ALABAMA...
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROJECTIONS OF SURFACE FRONT PLACEMENT
AND RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY. BASIC TREND WILL BE FOR SURFACE FRONT TO
STALL OUT NEAR I-59 ON SUNDAY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT...AND LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-65.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
THE NAM APPEARS TO THE THE OUTLIER MODEL AS THE SREF/GFS/ECMWF
MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST AND TRACK INTO
NORTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE NAM
MODEL IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW MUCH FARTHER WEST AND IS
HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING LOW LEVEL FEATURES. FORECAST WILL BE
BASED ON THE A GULF LOW DEVELOPMENT AND RAISED RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE PERIODS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY
LOOKS MARGINAL AS THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR REMAINS NEAR THE COAST.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LINE OF STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT. IF SURFACE LOW PULLS FARTHER
NORTH...THAN STRONGER CONVECTION COULD NOSE UP INTO AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-85 LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE
...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE DUE TO STRONG
FORCING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND
SHOULD BE OUT OF EAST ALABAMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD BE
ENDING ACROSS WEST ALABAMA BY 18Z TUESDAY WITH RAIN MOVING OUT OF
EAST ALABAMA BY MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS NEXT UPSTREAM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT
GULF MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO RESPOND AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
THE A RAIN FREE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL CONTAIN MUCH COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MOISTURE STARTS TO GATHER TO ALABAMA'S WEST LATE
IN THE FORECAST...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER PERIODS.

/61/

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO EAST ALABAMA TODAY AND CAUSE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR EAST ALABAMA FROM NOON CST
UNTIL 5 PM CST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  39  63  42  59 /  10  20  30  40  80
ANNISTON    72  41  68  45  61 /   0  10  30  30  80
BIRMINGHAM  73  49  65  46  60 /  10  20  30  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  75  47  62  48  59 /  10  30  40  60  90
CALERA      71  45  66  47  61 /  10  20  30  50  90
AUBURN      72  44  72  51  65 /   0  10  10  20  60
MONTGOMERY  73  41  73  49  66 /   0  10  20  30  70
TROY        72  37  73  48  70 /   0  10  10  20  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...
BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...
CLEBURNE...COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...
LOWNDES...MACON...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PIKE...RANDOLPH...
RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
557 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-140000-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
557 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.