Red Flag Warning 22, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
429 AM CDT TUE APR 13 2010

.DISCUSSION...

PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE...WE WILL STILL SEE TWO BACK-DOOR FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE FIRST FRONT OR OTHERWISE KNOWN AS A "WEDGE" WILL PUSH THROUGH
TODAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A SECOND AND MUCH STRONGER WEDGE
WILL SET IN PLACE ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY THAT FRONT COULD HELP
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS...BUT WITH COVERAGE BEING SO ISOLATED...DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP WORDING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO QUICKLY BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY IN
ANTICIPATION OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AS OUR NEXT GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...THE LATEST TREND BY THE LONG RANGE
MODELS IS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL RAN OUT OF STEAM AS IT
APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA. BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS
SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS IS SORT OF TRENDING THIS WAY...BUT IS
COMING IN A TAD WETTER. WILL TREND WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING IN WITH VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE
GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHILE THE ECMWF
COMES IN WETTER IN BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND SLIGHTLY WITH THE EURO AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE BEYOND THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND THUS EXPECT THE POLLEN
TO BE A PROBLEM FOR A WHILE. NOT GOOD NEWS FOR US ALLERGY
SUFFERERS.

10/ARM

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS SITUATED OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF IN THE
EVENING.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WHILE CEILOMETER DATA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...A REG FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  43  83  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    80  51  82  55  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  82  53  83  58  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  83  47  85  52  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      82  52  82  55  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      83  52  82  55  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  82  51  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        82  49  82  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BIBB...BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ETOWAH...
FAYETTE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARION...PICKENS...RANDOLPH...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...TUSCALOOSA...
WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
700 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-140000-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
700 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN A HIGH
FIRE DANGER. OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.