Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
530 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/HIGHLIGHTS REVOLVE AROUND THE CONTINUANCE OF
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOODING HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED IN SOME AREAS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A THREAT TODAY THROUGH
THE EVENING.

STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN TODAY. A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY THIS EVENING.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST/WEST OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND
SPREAD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WHERE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. FARTHER NORTH THE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF
WINDS FOR THE EVENING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...TO DECIDE IF A WARNING
IS NEEDED.

ONGOING CONVECTION SINCE WEDNESDAY EVENING HAS PRODUCED SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF STRONG WINDS. HEAVY RAIN HAS
ALSO PRODUCED FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. LATEST SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH STRONG
SHEARING ESTABLISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ND WITH
MLCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7.5
DEG C/KM. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSTABLE TODAY AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND VORT ENERGY MOVES FROM WYOMING ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY...AND CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE
THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 TO 1.5
INCHES...AS WELL AS ENHANCED MODEL QPF OVERSPREADING SATURATED
GROUND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND...FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
FLASH FLOODING THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE I

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. MODELS PLACE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS MONTANA BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM. EACH DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD GLASGOW.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KJMS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR
ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KMOT...KBIS...AND KJMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
THURSDAY.

IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
SURFACE LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MID MORNING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS AT
ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK...KMOT...KBIS...AND KJMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS HAVE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
CREATING FLASH FLOODING IN THE AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HIGHEST RISK AREAS ARE IN A SWATH
EXTENDING THROUGH MCKENZIE...MOUNTRAIL...WARD...AND BOTTINEAU
COUNTIES WITH SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS ALSO IN THE ADJOINING COUNTIES.
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 OR 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER LARGE AREAS AND
LOCALLY THE TOTALS MAY BE EVEN MUCH GREATER. DEPENDING UPON EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP ROADS ARE
THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ017>022-031>036-040>047-050.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>019-021-031-032.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR NDZ023-025-037-048-051.

&&

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM/AVIATION...DC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
612 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

NDZ001-002-009-010-181115-
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-
612 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
SEVERE...TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. BECOMING WINDY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ017>019-021-031-032-181115-
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-
612 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010 /512 AM MDT THU JUN 17 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
SEVERE...TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

BECOMING WINDY LATER THIS MORNING WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING IN
EFFECT FROM LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ020-022-033>036-040>047-050-181115-
OLIVER-SHERIDAN-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-SLOPE-HETTINGER-
GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-MCINTOSH-
612 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010 /512 AM MDT THU JUN 17 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
SEVERE...TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. BECOMING WINDY LATER THIS
MORNING WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ003>005-011>013-181115-
RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-
612 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
SEVERE...TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. BECOMING WINDY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ023-025-037-048-051-181115-
WELLS-FOSTER-STUTSMAN-LA MOURE-DICKEY-
612 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
SEVERE...TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. BECOMING WINDY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
944 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

NDZ022-023-035-036-171530-
BURLEIGH ND-KIDDER ND-SHERIDAN ND-WELLS ND-
944 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN BURLEIGH...NORTHWESTERN
KIDDER...SOUTHWESTERN WELLS AND SOUTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1030
AM CDT...

AT 942 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF WING...OR 29 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BISMARCK...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
WING AND ARENA AROUND 950 AM CDT.
GOODRICH AND DENHOFF AROUND 1015 AM CDT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

HEINERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1032 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

NDZ036-037-047-171615-
KIDDER ND-LOGAN ND-STUTSMAN ND-
1032 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR EASTERN KIDDER...WESTERN STUTSMAN
AND WESTERN LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

AT 1030 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF NAPOLEON...OR 56 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
TAPPEN AROUND 1110 AM CDT.
CRYSTAL SPRINGS AROUND 1115 AM CDT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

HEINERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1037 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 N ARENA               47.16N 100.16W
06/17/2010  E60 MPH          BURLEIGH           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CH/JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1100 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     TSTM WND GST     ST. ANTHONY             46.62N 100.91W
06/17/2010  E70 MPH          MORTON             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO 1.05 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

&&

CH/JM

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