Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 PM CDT THU JUN 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA
BORDER WITH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO CENT AL
PLAINS. LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF TROUGH WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENTLY...OVER THE CONUS...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS GIVING WAY TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
STATE...AND IS WORKING WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...BUT WILL LEAN WITH
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST.

THE SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST WILL TRACK OVER THE STATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE STATE. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF 1000 T0 1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
ND BY THIS EVENING...AND WITH ABOUT 20 KNOTS OF 0-1 KM
SHEAR...EXPECT SOME ORGANIZATION...BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD APPROACH
SEVERE CRITERIA. THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN
AFTER SUNSET...AS THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING EXITS THE CWA AND DAYTIME
HEATING CEASES.

BROAD RIDGING RETURNS TO THE PLAINS FOR FRIDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF SATURDAY.
MODELS SUGGEST MOST INSTABILITY WOULD BE ALONG A LINE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST ND...SO WILL EMPHASIS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THERE. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER AS IT
PHASES WITH AND EXTENDS A TROUGH DESCENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FROM EASTERN CANADA. THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH MAY EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MY EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 70 AND LOWS AROUND 50 FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FORECAST HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND
ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN LONG TERM
MODELS. THUS LOW PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS/THUNDER IS EXPECTED IN
EACH FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S...AND LOWS 45 TO 55.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA TO NEAR KDIK/KMBG
WAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
AROUND 06Z. AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT HAS RESULTED IN RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS SET TO CROSS OVER THE STATE LATER TODAY MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING IN THE WEST AND
SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. VFR SHOULD
AGAIN PREVAIL BY TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE VICINITY
OF ANY STORMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HW/BPN/JV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
423 AM CDT THU JUN 3 2010

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-040930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
423 AM CDT THU JUN 3 2010 /323 AM MDT THU JUN 3 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND IT'S ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHS TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL MONTANA THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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