Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. IT APPEARS THE LOW SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING PUSHING THE WARM FRONT CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST MONTANA.
MOVEMENT HAS BEEN NORTHEAST BUT WITH DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH END
IT APPEARS THAT THE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NORTH ND
THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY LIFT INTO CANADA BY LATE MORNING AS
THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING IN
THE NORTHWEST...BUT WILL DROP THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES FROM THE
WATCH AS THE TSTMS SHOULD TRACK INTO CANADA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN HAS DECREASED THERE. STILL...TSTM DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY
WAS NORTH OF THE FRONT...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND REPLACE
THE CURRENT LOW...THE ELONGATE AND SHIFT SLOWLY EAST LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. EVEN THOUGH CAPE WILL BE HIGH IN THE WARM AIR
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE MODELS SEEM TO DEVELOP A MID LAYER OF
WARM AIR WHICH CAPS POTENTIAL CONVECTION. CONSEQUENTLY...BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE LOW/TROUGH. THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY SHIFTING
THE BEST CAPE EAST WITH IT. WILL LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE WEST...BUT WITH A WILL BE A STRONG GRADIENT ALONG THE TROUGH
TO CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION...BUT BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION...AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY IMPACT FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
ON MONDAY AND THE ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE
THAN THE GFS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS
TIME. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ANOTHER TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER ASSUMING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BACK INTO THE 70S STATEWIDE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE FOCUS OF ANY ORGANIZED RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. DURING PEAK HEATING...THE NAM IS THE ONLY
OPERATIONAL MODEL THAT OVERCOMES STRONG CAPPING ALOFT TO GENERATE
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WITH
THAT IN MIND...WILL LEAVE TAFS DRY EXPECT FOR KISN/KDIK LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ001-002-
009-010-017.

&&

TSW/RPK

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