Severe Thunderstorm Warning 423, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
312 PM CDT THU SEP 9 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
MULTIPLE CONCERNS TONIGHT INVOLVE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES
AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN.

PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ARE VERY MOIST WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
HERMINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ARE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
EARLIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS DICKEY/LAMOURE/STUTSMAN COUNTIES OF
THE SOUTHEAST CWA RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION. CURRENTS TRENDS SUGGEST RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL PROVE A
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO THOSE COUNTIES. OTHER HEAVY RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WEST AND NORTH...HOWEVER CURRENT THINKING IS
SUFFICIENT CAPACITY ON THE SOILS WILL TAKE SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN. OTHERWISE...WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS LOOSING  THE CAP...AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOW A FOCUS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
EAST...WITH RAIN AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST. AREAS
OF RAIN AND FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WEST. GENERALLY CLEARING
SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND A QUITE EARLY FALL WEEKEND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IMPULSES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE.  OVERALL PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP WILL BE LOW...BUT WILL ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO MONDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CEILINGS
BELOW 1000 FEET AGL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE BREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
NOW IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.  IN ADDITION...LOW VISIBILITIES AND LOW
CEILINGS ALONG WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WITH THE LOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ037-047-048-050-051.

&&

WAA/TSW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
359 PM CDT THU SEP 9 2010

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-102100-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
359 PM CDT THU SEP 9 2010 /259 PM MDT THU SEP 9 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE STATE INTO THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...WITH STREET AND RURAL FLOODING A CONCERN FOR
AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER ON
THURSDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
NIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

AYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
732 PM CDT THU SEP 09 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             13 SW HALLIDAY          47.22N 102.53W
09/09/2010  M1.50 INCH       DUNN               ND   PUBLIC

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
754 PM CDT THU SEP 09 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             6 NNE BELFIELD          46.97N 103.15W
09/09/2010  M1.50 INCH       STARK              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL LASTED 5 MINUTES, GROUND COVERED, CROP DAMAGE,
            LEAVES OFF OF TREES, ALSO HEAVY RAIN.

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
755 PM CDT THU SEP 09 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     HAIL             2 NW BEULAH             47.28N 101.81W
09/09/2010  M1.00 INCH       MERCER             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAIL LASTED 9 MINUTES.

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
808 PM CDT THU SEP 09 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW BEULAH             47.28N 101.81W
09/09/2010  E60 MPH          MERCER             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ALSO 0.88 INCH OF RAINFALL IN 30 MINUTES.

&&

VROLLER

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