Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
324 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...ON GOING SEVERE WEATHER WITH TORNADO WATCH CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST UNTIL 10 PM CDT. MOIST FLOW OVER
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA CREATING
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EAST...ALSO HEAVY RAIN. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TONIGHT I EXPECT
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BE A THREAT TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH
WIND WATCH IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN WEST. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THERE. WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST.

AS MENTION IN THE SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT...THE REGION BECOMES OVERPLAYED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA GOING TUESDAY. ALL THIS LIFTS OUT AND ENDS
TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY QUIET.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY FRIDAY BUT BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY I
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A WET AND WINDY PERIOD.
THIS MAY EXTEND INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON SPEED AND TRACK OF UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES.

.AVIATION...MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO AVIATION CONTINUE THIS PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL...(LARGE HAIL/
WINDS GRATER THAN 50KTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES) EXIST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. KBIS/KJMS THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS AT OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AIRPORTS. KDIK WILL SEE IFR CIGS AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE HOLDS LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KBIS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WILL HAVE AN INCREASED EFFECT ON LOCAL STREAMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  A NUMBER OF AREAS HAVE RECORDED ALMOST TWO INCHES OF RAIN
FROM THE PAST WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  THIS HAS LIKELY
CREATED SOME VERY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
DRAINAGES...BUT HAS NOT CREATED FLOODING OF THE BIGGER RIVERS AND
STREAMS.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS
MORE...AND POSSIBLY EVEN STRONGER...THUNDERSTORMS PASS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.  EVEN WITH THE RECENT WET WEATHER
AND INCOMING RAINS...THE BIGGER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE STILL
UNLIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ALTHOUGH HIGHER WATER
WILL BECOME MORE NOTED IN MANY AREAS.

THE LOWER JAMES RIVER NEAR LUDDEN CURRENTLY HAS A STAGE OF 13.4 FEET
AND IS THE ONLY RIVER CURRENTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN THE BISMARCK
FORECAST AREA.  WHILE THE LOWER JAMES WILL RISE SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...IT WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE OF
14 FEET.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>036-040>046.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ001>004-
009>012-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

SHORT TERM...ABELING
AVIATION...ABELING/AYD
LONG TERM...AYD/ABELING
HYDROLOGY...SCHLAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
451 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

NDZ001>004-009>012-017>022-031>035-040>046-251000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
SIOUX-EMMONS-
451 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010 /351 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORM MAY BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS CENTRAL AND EAST.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. GUSTS TO NEAR 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR TUESDAY.

THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NDZ005-013-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051-251000-
ROLETTE-PIERCE-WELLS-FOSTER-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-
MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
451 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORM MAY BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS CENTRAL AND EAST.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY RAINS THAT MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING...AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. GUSTS TO NEAR 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR TUESDAY.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NH

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