Severe Thunderstorm Warning 388, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
246 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CURRENTLY THE SURFACE LOW IS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM
FRONT ALONG ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
INITIATING AND MOVING EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND BELOW AN UPPER LEVEL JET. LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE LOW THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THERE HAS BEEN WEAK CONVECTION IN
THIS AREA. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THIS AREA LATER
THIS EVENING AND STRONGER CONVECTION IS LIKELY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY EAST. EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED
INTO MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY MORNING...ANOTHER LOBE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL STILL BE BACK IN SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MAINTAINING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SUNDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CAUSED BY HEATING.
COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST AND LINK TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEN SHOULD SEE SLOW WARMING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY VFR...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A POSSIBILITY AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG AND STRATUS
FRIDAY MORNING BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TSW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
536 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-131045-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
536 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010 /436 AM MDT THU AUG 12 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE THE MORE LIKELY TIMES IN WHICH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WOULD OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

JV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
809 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

NDZ040-043-130215-
BOWMAN ND-SLOPE ND-
709 PM MDT THU AUG 12 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR WESTERN BOWMAN AND WESTERN SLOPE
COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM MDT...

AT 706 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MARMARTH TO 42 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARMARTH...AND MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
PRETTY BUTTE AROUND 730 PM MDT.
MARMARTH AROUND 745 PM MDT.
SUNSET BUTTE...MUD BUTTES AND RHAME AROUND 815 PM MDT.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

ABELING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
817 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     9 N VERONA              46.49N 98.07W
08/12/2010                   LAMOURE            ND   PUBLIC

            STRONG ROTATION WITH A FUNNEL VISIBLE.

&&

KBIRK