Severe Thunderstorm Warning 337, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
241 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH
MULTIPLE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL LESSENING OF THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
STATE. GRADUALLY THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BY WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THIS LEADS TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIP FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFTOVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS INITIATION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ALSO
PLAYING A ROLE IN GETTING THINGS ORGANIZED THERE SOONER THAN
ELSEWHERE.

WILL MENTION STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AND THEN WILL DROP THE CHANCES TO WIDELY SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT ABOUT NORMAL FRO THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

LONG TERM ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING
LARGE SCALE FEATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AT UPPER
LEVELS...THE LARGE HUDSON BAY LOW BEGINS A SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD
AND THE WEST COAST TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW WITH A WEST COAST
TROUGH WILL KEEP A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR WEST THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FLOW PATTERN SUNDAY. THUS HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY 55
TO 60.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN SURFACE FEATURES ARE THE LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE A FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. KJMS MAY BE AFFECTED BY CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THIS
BORDER.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT.

OTHERWISE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL PERIOD
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN RECENT
(AND FUTURE) HEAVY RAINS. NOT IN CURRENT SET OF TAFS BUT LOOK FOR
UPDATES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...ABELING
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VINING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
505 AM CDT SUN AUG 1 2010

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-021015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
505 AM CDT SUN AUG 1 2010 /405 AM MDT SUN AUG 1 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW PRESSURE.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WE WILL BECOME MORE SPECIFIC WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS WE
GET CLOSER TO ANY SUCH EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

KS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
422 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     HAIL             13 WNW WILLISTON        48.23N 103.89W
08/01/2010  E1.00 INCH       WILLIAMS           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDOWS BROKEN ON NORTH SIDE OF HOUSE. HAIL STILL
            OCCURRING AT 410 PM CDT.

&&

HWETZEL