Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2010

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 327, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 29, 2010Bottineau County, McHenry County, Renville County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 29, 2010, 10:46 PM CDT for Bottineau County, McHenry County, Renville County, North Dakota. It was in force for 59 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 29, 2010, 10:46 PM CDT (03:46 UTC)
Expired: Jul 29, 2010, 11:45 PM CDT
In force: 59 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Bottineau County, ND, McHenry County, ND, Renville County, ND

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 29, 4:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	10 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 203 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 515 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -185 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1073 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 143 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 91 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 29, 1:01 PM CDT, 9 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 29, 1:01 PM CDT, 9 hours 45 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
101 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF CONUS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN PLAINS BENEATH A BARRAGE
OF SHORTWAVES AS THEY EJECT OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. TROUGH
INTO COMPLEX MULTI-STREAM FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED...AS ARE ABOVE
AVERAGE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DEAL
PRIMARILY WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL
MASS FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM CONCERNS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS A
FAIRLY STRONG EML CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
H7 TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 10C ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ND RESULTING IN NOTABLE CAPPING. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY
NEAR-SURFACE FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION
WITH SBCAPES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH MARCHING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ND. AS THIS
OCCURS...INHIBITION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH CAPPING ERODING
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY ABOUT 21 UTC
TODAY. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN ND...AIDED
BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FORCED ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
NOTABLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MT. ONCE
INITIATION OCCURS...AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SURFACE-BASED STORMS GIVEN BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...NCEP/HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER EXTENDED
FORECAST WAS HEAVILY RELIED ON. IN GENERAL...CHANGES WERE MINOR
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASED WHEN THE 12 UTC GFS/GEM
GLOBAL AND 00 UTC ECMWF HAD BETTER AGREEMENT ON LARGE-SCALE
SUPPORT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND CORRESPONDING ENHANCEMENT
OF MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
COOLER AIR MASSES REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEST TO
EAST BEGINNING AROUND 21Z TODAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 21Z AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END AROUND 06Z IN WESTERN TAF SITES AND
BY 12Z FRIDAY IN THE KJMS AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING. AFTER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS...ONLY SCT
TO BKN MIDDLE CLOUDS EXPECTED.

SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...HAMMER/SCHECK
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...JV

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 29, 12:17 PM CDT, 10 hours 29 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1217 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-301730-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
1217 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010 /1117 AM MDT THU JUL 29 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK.
SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT BEFORE SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATER IN
THE WEEK.

SCHECK

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 29, 9:38 PM CDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NE GRASSY BUTTE       47.46N 103.14W
07/29/2010  E60 MPH          MCKENZIE           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. ALSO VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

CLH

Special weather statement, Jul 29, 9:38 PM CDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

NDZ002>004-010-011-300330-
BOTTINEAU ND-BURKE ND-MOUNTRAIL ND-RENVILLE ND-WARD ND-
938 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR PARTS OF BOTTINEAU...RENVILLE...
WARD...MOUNTRAIL AND BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 930 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED 40 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR LIGNITE TO NEAR BELDEN. THIS IS WEST
OF MINOT. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

TOWNS IN THE PATH OF THE STORMS INCLUDE...FLAXTON...BLAISDELL...
MAKOTI...NIOBE...BOWBELLS...TAGUS...NORTHGATE...RYDER...KENMARE...
AND COULEE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. KEEP ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER...AND
BE READY TO TAKE SHELTER.

HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.

JP MARTIN

Special weather statement, Jul 29, 9:39 PM CDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
939 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

NDZ018-031>033-300330-
BILLINGS ND-DUNN ND-GOLDEN VALLEY ND-STARK ND-
839 PM MDT THU JUL 29 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWESTERN DUNN...NORTHWESTERN
STARK...CENTRAL BILLINGS AND NORTHERN GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES UNTIL
930 PM MDT...

AT 835 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTH OF TROTTERS...OR 16 MILES
NORTHEAST OF WIBAUX...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MEDORA...
  FRYBURG...
  SOUTH FAIRFIELD...
  BELFIELD...
  SENTINEL BUTTE...
  FAIRFIELD...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

SCHECK/AYD

Local storm report, Jul 29, 10:10 PM CDT, 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1010 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     TSTM WND GST     WHITE SHIELD            47.66N 101.85W
07/29/2010  E60 MPH          MCLEAN             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

VROLLER

Local storm report, Jul 29, 10:25 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1025 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 N GREENE              48.73N 101.71W
07/29/2010  E60 MPH          RENVILLE           ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1015 PM     HAIL             3 W GRANO               48.62N 101.65W
07/29/2010  M1.00 INCH       RENVILLE           ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

VROLLER

Local storm report, Jul 29, 10:30 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1030 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     TSTM WND GST     HALLIDAY                47.35N 102.34W
07/29/2010  E60 MPH          DUNN               ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

VROLLER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 29, 7:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie, Williams	24 min
Jul 29, 7:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Williams	67 min
Jul 29, 7:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie, Williams	51 min
Jul 29, 7:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, McKenzie	62 min
Jul 29, 8:09 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	McKenzie, Williams	2 hr
Jul 29, 8:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie, Williams	54 min
Jul 29, 8:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burke, Mountrail, Williams	67 min
Jul 29, 8:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burke, Divide, Williams	59 min
Jul 29, 8:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Dunn, McKenzie, Mountrail	54 min
Jul 29, 8:55 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Mountrail, Williams	3 hr
Jul 29, 9:09 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Burke, Divide, Mountrail, Williams	100 min
Jul 29, 9:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Dunn, McLean, Mercer, Stark	45 min
Jul 29, 9:38 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Billings, Dunn, Golden Valley, McKenzie	3 hr
Jul 29, 9:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bottineau, Burke, Mountrail, Renville, Ward	59 min
Jul 29, 10:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, McLean, Mercer, Oliver	46 min
Jul 29, 10:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Dunn, Mercer, Morton, Oliver, Stark	44 min
Jul 29, 10:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Mercer, Oliver	65 min
Jul 29, 10:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, Grant, Mercer, Morton, Oliver, Stark	63 min
Jul 29, 10:59 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Mercer, Oliver	31 min
Jul 29, 11:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, McLean, Oliver, Sheridan	33 min
Jul 29, 11:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Hettinger, Mercer, Morton, Oliver, Stark	28 min
Jul 30, 6:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, McLean	28 min
Jul 30, 6:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh	35 min
Jul 30, 6:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh	38 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2010 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.