Severe Thunderstorm Warning 288, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
314 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

NORTHERN STREAM VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA HAS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM LAKE
WINNIPEG SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THE NORTHERN STREAM
WESTERLIES ARE A BIT NORTH OF THE BORDER...SO THE FRONT IS SLOW
MOVING. OVER THE U.S....HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL DIRECT
A SERIES OF IMPULSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE PATTERN ACTIVE EVEN AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND BECOMES
STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS SEVERE WEATHER.

CURRENTLY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAVE EDGED DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S...RESULTING IN OVER 4000 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE.
LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD SPREAD INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA OUT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BETWEEN 22 AND 00 UTC BASED ON
THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS 35 TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TOMORROW...WITH THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE LINTON/WISHEK AREA.

THEREAFTER...THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
BOMBARD THE DAKOTAS.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AS A COOL
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION REMAINS NEAR OR
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ALONG WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH AN INCOMING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GENERALLY BE FOCUSED ALONG A SLOW MOVING SFC/MID LEVEL COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ND LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND
LOWER CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WINDS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AROUND AND AFTER 15Z
TUES ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING SOUTH THROUGH 18Z
TUES AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM/AVIATION...NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
250 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-271000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
250 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010 /150 PM MDT MON JUL 26 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME LIKELY SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN...CAN BE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS MONTANA...AND AS A STRONG UPPER
LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL WITH SOME OF THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OR WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS IN AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...SPECIFICALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL.

NH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
627 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             5 S COLUMBUS            48.83N 102.78W
07/26/2010  E1.25 INCH       BURKE              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERED GROUND. HAIL LASTER APPROXIMATELY 10
            MINUTES.

&&

PAYD