Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA..WITH A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING NORTH OF THE LOW INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EAST OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODEL SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGEST STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS A SIGNIFICANT CAP
WHILE THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ERODE THE CAP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ALONG
THE WESTERN BORDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. AS
THE CAP ERODES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE TRIPLE POINT BETWEEN THE
COLD AND WARM FRONTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SUFFICIENT SHEAR/CAPE EXISTS FOR A
TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.

THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST US INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD A
GOOD AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BENEATH A MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL US. WE EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OVER MOST OF
THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA HAD AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MIGRATE EAST
TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
THOUSAND ARE EXPECTED AT BIS/MOT/JMS GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CLOUDS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 THOUSAND ARE EXPECTED AT ISN/DIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

WAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
354 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-232100-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
354 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010 /254 PM MDT SAT MAY 22 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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