Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN. THE FOCUS WILL BE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXIST FROM
FRIDAY EVENING CONVECTION. THUS MULTIPLE LINES OF CONVECTION ARE
LIKELY BUT THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL EAST THIS EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE SUNDAY BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRUSH THE NORTH CENTRAL SO HAVE ADDED A RESIDUAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EVENTUALLY THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND
BRINGS WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM THE H5 RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. GFS AND ECMWF BUILD A SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO THE
NORTHWEST US BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET UP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLOWING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LATER HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE
AN ACTIVE ONE CONVECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT 3 PM CDT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN
HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z/10 PM CDT.
ALTHOUGH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE VICINITY AND AT THE TAFS SITE
APPEAR LIKELY ESPECIALLY AT KBIS/KJMS AND KMOT. VFR AFTER 06Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH K INDEX VALUES...SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WATER
AND THE TRAINING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. OF CONCERN IS THE SOURIS RIVER VALLEY REGION WHERE PAST
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EVENTS HAVE ADDED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL TO
THE REGION. BUT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS OVER ALL OF WEST
AND CENTRAL ND. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST
AND CENTRAL THROUGH 06Z/1 AM CDT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

ABELING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
437 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-270945-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
437 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010 /337 AM MDT SAT JUN 26 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER...GOOD SHEAR...AND HIGH CAPE WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

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