Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
306 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT..
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA. ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION
ONGOING BUT BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AT THIS TIME. ANTICIPATING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE UP THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS INTO NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND SURFACE TROUGH ALONG MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BEING THE
FOCAL POINTS FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE REGION WILL FINALLY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE...BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE FIGURING OUT THE
TIMELINE ON THE BREAKDOWN AND/OR SHIFT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING
TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN HOLDING THE RIDGE IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH A QUICKER SHIFT...SHIFTING IT EAST BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD CERTAINLY OPEN UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LINING UP AND HEADING INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD AT LEAST KEEP THE
SHORTWAVES AWAY FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THURSDAY. HAVE WEIGHTED THE GFS SOLUTION MORE HEAVILY WITH A SLOWER
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE PER HPC GRIDS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THEN INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVES
MIGRATING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MID AND UPPER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS OR SEVER WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AERODROMES MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

WAA/KS/CH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
408 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-260915-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
408 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010 /308 AM MDT FRI JUN 25 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SOME COULD BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND SATURDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
617 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW MANDAN             46.86N 100.93W
06/25/2010  M0.71 INCH       MORTON             ND   PUBLIC

            LESS THAN ONE HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL

&&

CLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
618 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NW HAZELTON           46.53N 100.34W
06/25/2010  M0.61 INCH       EMMONS             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            40 MINUTE RAINFALL TOTAL

&&

CLH

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