Alert archive / North Dakota / River Flood Warnings in 2010

River Flood Warning 24, NWS Bismarck, ND

June 21, 2010McHenry County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this river flood warning at Jun 21, 2010, 11:54 AM CDT for McHenry County, North Dakota. It took effect at Jun 25, 2010, 7:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 6 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 21, 2010, 11:54 AM CDT (16:54 UTC)
In effect from: Jun 25, 2010, 7:00 PM CDT
Expired: Jul 1, 2010, 10:45 AM CDT
In force: 6 days
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Flood severity: Minor

County McHenry County, ND

The river

Written for the forecast point Souris River near Bantry (BANN8). The gauge peaked at 11.11 ft at Jun 28, 2010, 4:00 AM CDT.

Action stage: 1439 ft
Minor stage: 1440 ft
Moderate stage: 1441 ft
Major stage: 1443 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05122000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jun 21, 2:07 AM CDT, 9 hours 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 21, 2:07 AM CDT, 9 hours 47 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
207 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE TODAY THROUGH PERHAPS TUESDAY DAYTIME.
WILL USE A BLEND OF MODELS.

CURRENTLY...POTENT MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAS LEAD TO EXTENSIVE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING TO NOW. STORMS HAVE BEEN
SLOW MOVERS AND HAVE LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THANKS TO OUR
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS.

AFTER THIS ROUND OF STORMS PUSHES NORTH AND EAST LATER THIS
MORNING...WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY BEGINNING SOMETIME THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN
CIRCULATION CENTER FROM A WEST COAST TROUGH EJECTS EAST-NORTHEAST
INTO THE MONTANA ROCKIES. HAVE SCALED BACK ON CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS ALL GUIDANCE POINTS AT THE EVENING HOURS FOR WHEN
STORMS INITIATING OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ND.
MUCH STEEPER FORECAST LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRESENT A MUCH HIGHER RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS IS
FORECAST...AND THE LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER-BASED STORMS THAT FORM IN EASTERN MONTANA TO
BUILD MUCH CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE STATE. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT...SO LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE STATE MONDAY EVENING. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL
LINE WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS BY LATE EVENING...SO THE MAIN THREATS
WOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FLOODING FURTHER
TO THE EAST.

OVERALL...PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS STAY AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN MANY AREAS AT
JUST OVER AN INCH PER HOUR. SOME PLACES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THANKS
TO THE ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER HOWEVER ON THE HEAVIER QPF PLACEMENT FOR THIS
EVENT AS FORCING WILL COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISSUING
NOTHING IS NOT REALLY AN OPTION SO WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. AS STATED ABOVE
IT SEEMS MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A LATER START TIME FOR STORMS
PUSHING INTO WESTERN ND...THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO...CONVECTION IS TRICKY SO WILL BEGIN THE WATCH AT
21Z WITH AN END TIME OF 18Z TUESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST. THE DAY SHIFT MAY WISH TO TRIM THIS DOWN
ON BOTH TIMING AND AERIAL COVERAGE AFTER DIGESTING NEWER FORECAST
GUIDANCE.

DEPENDING ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WE
MAY SEE ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON TUESDAY ACROSS MY EASTERN
THIRD. HOWEVER...THE LATEST TRENDS ARE PUSHING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
FURTHER EAST NOW MORE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH WED AFTERNOON WITH THE COVERAGE
MORE SCT AND THE INTENSITY RELATIVELY WEAK.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE WITH WARM AND WET CONDITIONS. OF COURSE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
TOPPING RIDGE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AND FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING
EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW. ADDED A DRY AND WARM DAY EIGHT BUT THIS WILL
BE SUBJECT TO REVISIONS AS NEW MODELS RUNS NARROW THE DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY AREAS OF CONVECTION FOR ALL TAF SITES AND WITH VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LITTLE MIXING NOT UNLIKELY TO SEE AREAS OF MIST
DEVELOP WHERE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...HW

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 21, 4:42 AM CDT, 7 hours 12 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 21, 6:22 AM CDT, 5 hours 32 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jun 21, 7:38 AM CDT, 4 hours 16 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jun 21, 8:55 AM CDT, 2 hours 59 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jun 21, 11:33 AM CDT, 21 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 20, 8:56 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Dickey	3 hr
Jun 20, 9:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burke	20 min
Jun 20, 10:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bottineau, Renville	44 min
Jun 20, 10:41 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Bottineau	19 min
Jun 20, 11:47 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Burke, Divide	6 hr
Jun 21, 12:22 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, Mercer, Stark	34 min
Jun 21, 12:28 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	BIS	Burke, Divide	5 hr
Jun 21, 1:28 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	BIS	Bottineau	6 hr
Jun 21, 2:22 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	BIS	Adams, Billings, Bottineau, Bowman, Burke, Burleigh and 26 more	26 hr
Jun 21, 3:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Ward	59 min
Jun 21, 3:10 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	McLean, Ward	22 hr
Jun 21, 3:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Ward	33 min
Jun 21, 4:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry, Ward	33 min
Jun 21, 5:13 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	McHenry	10 hr
Jun 21, 5:34 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Pierce	9 hr
Jun 21, 6:26 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Sheridan	5 hr
Jun 21, 7:40 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Bottineau, Renville	6 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in North Dakota, 2010 Every river flood warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.