River Flood Warning 22, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
431 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MODELS FORECAST A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE
LIFTING NORTH AND SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NORTH...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP
IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY DUE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW. A TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE THAT
FROM RESCENT RAINS...EXPECT TO SEE SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND
CONSEQUENTLY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPEPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
BUT A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND PRELIMINARY
TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY...WITH THE USUAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES THEN MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL SEE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOP WHICH WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS CAUSED SOME FLOODING
IN THE AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF
HEAVY RAIN IS SHIFTING TO NORTH CENTRAL ND.

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...
AND LIGHTING WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CANADA...BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ FRIDAY FOR
NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ FRIDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013.

&&

TSW