Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING IT...THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BUILD IN...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 125 PM... TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE IS OVER WESTERN NY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT
ACROSS ONT AND LOWER MI. THE OTHER IS FORMING OVER THE DELMARVA
REGION AND SOUTHEAST PA. THE FORMER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD CROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHT WEAKENING IN INTENSITY...AS
THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
CLOUDIER/MORE STABLE SO FAR TODAY. SINCE THERE IS STILL A SMALL
WINDOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS
AREA IS CLOSER TO THE BETTER HEATING THAT HAS OCCURRED DOWN OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN...WE STILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST PA AND
THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.

LATER TONIGHT...ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...DRIER/MORE
STABLE AIR WILL BUILD IN...WITH SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASING
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 135 PM... A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL PROGRESSIVELY
INVADE THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. TUE THROUGH WED. OVERALL...THIS AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY DRY...SO A MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE
ACROSS UPSTATE NY...AND COULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN TUG
HILL...AND CATSKILL ZONES...ESPECIALLY FROM TUE NIGHT INTO WED
EVENING.

BY THU...AN AMPLIFIED CLOSED LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH RISING
HEIGHTS ACROSS NY/PA...AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR EARLY JULY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND
LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY QUIET XTNDD PD AS A LRG HIPRES BLDS IN SFC AND ALOFT AND
GIVES THE AREA DRY WX. BY SUN...+590DM H5 HI OVER WRN PA AND H8
TEMPS APCHG 20C. SO...TEMP TREND WILL SHOW WRMG THRU THE PD WITH
HI/S WELL ABV NRML BY THE END OF THE PD. GNRLY FLWD HPC GUID FOR
TEMPS BUT DID DIAL BACK A BIT IN THE TEMPS NEAR THE END TO BLEND
BETTER WITH THE SRNDG OFFICES AND THE LATEST MEX GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CONV FIRING THIS AFTN WILL BRING SCT SHWRS AND TRWS TO THE TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. IN GNRL...PCPN SHD BRING TEMP MVFR
CONDS AT WORST AS THEY PAST. COLD FNT IS STILL WELL BACK OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SO DO NOT XPCT RAPID CLRG OVRNGT INSTEAD EXPCT THE
LINGERING MOISTURE TO BRING MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH FOG. DRIER AIR
ENTERS THE AREA ON TUE ON WLY WINDS...DROPPING THE DEW PTS AND A
GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR CONDS BY MID TO LATE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...

TUES THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR OTHER THAN SOME MORNING IFR FOG AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-291800-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
146 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...THROUGH ABOUT 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MJ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
242 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

NYZ022>024-281930-
CHEMUNG NY-SCHUYLER NY-STEUBEN NY-
242 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CHEMUNG...EAST CENTRAL STEUBEN AND
SOUTHERN SCHUYLER COUNTIES...

* AT 239 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND
  VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SAVONA...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MEADS CREEK AT 250 PM EDT...
  HORNBY AND MONTEREY AT 255 PM EDT...
  BEAVER DAMS AND TOWNSEND AT 300 PM EDT...
  CHAMBERS AT 305 PM EDT...
  MORELAND AND BIG FLATS AT 310 PM EDT...
  TOMPKINS CORNERS AND MILLPORT AT 315 PM EDT...
  HORSEHEADS NORTH AND HORSEHEADS AT 320 PM EDT...
  BREESPORT AND CAYUTA AT 325 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4241 7725 4231 7669 4228 7668 4228 7655
      4227 7654 4204 7663 4224 7732

MLJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
410 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

NYZ025-055-056-282100-
BROOME NY-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
410 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN TIOGA...SOUTHEASTERN
TOMPKINS AND WESTERN BROOME COUNTIES...

* AT 409 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND
  VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILLSEYVILLE...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WILLSEYVILLE AND WEST CANDOR AT 415 PM EDT...
  CANDOR AT 420 PM EDT...
  SPEEDVILLE AND CATATONK AT 425 PM EDT...
  WEST NEWARK AND JENKSVILLE AT 430 PM EDT...
  NEWARK VALLEY AND BERKSHIRE AT 435 PM EDT...
  EAST BERKSHIRE AT 440 PM EDT...
  FOSTER AND NANTICOKE AT 445 PM EDT...
  MAINE AND UNION CENTER AT 450 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4238 7653 4228 7585 4225 7585 4225 7583
      4204 7590 4219 7653 4227 7654 4228 7657

MLJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
605 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

NYZ022-023-282245-
SCHUYLER NY-STEUBEN NY-
605 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL STEUBEN AND WEST
CENTRAL SCHUYLER COUNTIES...

* AT 604 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND
  STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM KANONA TO HARTSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RHEIMS AND HAMMONDSPORT AT 615 PM EDT...
  BUENA VISTA AT 620 PM EDT...
  BATH AT 625 PM EDT...
  WEST CAMERON AT 630 PM EDT...
  BRADFORD AT 635 PM EDT...
  SONORA AND RISINGVILLE AT 640 PM EDT...
  SAVONA AT 645 PM EDT...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4229 7774 4231 7774 4242 7736 4238 7688
      4220 7732 4225 7774 4228 7774

HEDEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
610 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

NYZ015-022>025-282315-
CHEMUNG NY-SCHUYLER NY-STEUBEN NY-TOMPKINS NY-YATES NY-
610 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL CHEMUNG...NORTH
CENTRAL STEUBEN...SCHUYLER...SOUTHERN YATES AND SOUTHWESTERN TOMPKINS
COUNTIES...

* AT 608 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG
  GUSTY WINDS.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PRATTSBURG...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HAMMONDSPORT AND RHEIMS AT 615 PM EDT...
  URBANA AND KEUKA AT 620 PM EDT...
  WAYNE AND BRADFORD AT 625 PM EDT...
  TYRONE AND WESTON AT 630 PM EDT...
  ALTAY AND DUNDEE AT 635 PM EDT...
  READING CENTER AND ROCK STREAM AT 640 PM EDT...
  WATKINS GLEN AND WEDGEWOOD AT 645 PM EDT...
  WATKINS GLEN AND MONTOUR FALLS AT 650 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4251 7650 4224 7673 4239 7742 4259 7733

HEDEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
622 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

NYZ015>017-282315-
CAYUGA NY-SENECA NY-YATES NY-
622 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN YATES...SOUTHERN SENECA
AND SOUTHWESTERN CAYUGA COUNTIES...

* AT 621 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR POTTER...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FERGUSON CORNERS AND YATESVILLE AT 630 PM EDT...
  BENTON AND KEUKA PARK AT 635 PM EDT...
  MILO MILLS AND BELLONA STN AT 640 PM EDT...
  MAYS MILLS AND MILO CENTER AT 645 PM EDT...
  DRESDEN AT 650 PM EDT...
  KENDAIA AND MAC DOUGALL AT 655 PM EDT...
  WILLARD AND ROMULUS AT 700 PM EDT...
  OVID AND LODI STATION AT 705 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4277 7728 4277 7698 4281 7697 4278 7661
      4263 7664 4263 7667 4260 7665 4256 7666
      4255 7676 4265 7731

MLJ