Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
806 AM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY. AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER...CATSKILLS...AND
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THE ACTIVITY EAST BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 805 AM...TORNADO WATCH FOR SRN TIER OF NY AND NE PA TIL
3 PM. PREV BLO...

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE RAIN SHIELD WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE CWA. WHILE
WINDS LOOK IMPRESSIVE AT .5 ELEVATION...SFC OBS SHOW NONE OF THE
HIGH WINDS ARE REACHING THE GROUND ATTM AS WE ARE DECOUPLED.

EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIXING WILL OCCUR AND SOME OF
THE WINDS MAY BEGIN TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SFC.

MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA. THE NAM IS...OF COURSE...MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AND HAS
MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES THEN THE GFS. THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER...THE RAIN MAY HAMPER THE
CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANYTHING
DEVELOP WILL BE NE PA AND A LINE JUST NORTH OF I88 SOUTH. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THESE STORMS. THIS AREA IS
ALSO OUTLOOKED FOR LARGE HAIL AND A LOW POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC
ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AT THE NAM SOUNDING FOR AVP...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
TURING OF THE WINDS AND SOME SPEED SHEAR...THERE WILL BE A CAP
JUST BELOW 700 MB AT 15Z. THE CAP DOES ERODE BY 18Z...BUT THEN THE
WINDS ARENT AS FAVORABLE AS THEY BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE INCREASE IN POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS MODELS COULD VERY WELL BE
OVER DOING THE CAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM TODAY WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT TO THE EAST
AS A COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. TEMPS WITH THIS HIGH
WILL BE COOLER THEN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE LOW 70S IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS...AND POSSIBLY ONLY
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS. LOWS LOOK
TO DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOMEWHAT OF AN
UNSETTLED END TO NEXT WEEK AS A WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS INTERACTS WITH FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATING EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE
FIRST OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
ONCE THIS FEATURE PUSHES THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY DRY AS RIDGING NOSES IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THE
NEXT UPR WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FRI NITE INTO SATURDAY...LIFTING
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. REALIZING THIS WARMTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXACT POSITION
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY CLOUD DEBRIS FROM AREAS OF STORM
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NY LATE THIS MORNING WITH A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WITH
PREVAILING MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
LAST THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OCCURS
AFTER 18Z. OVERALL...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS MINIMAL THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF TSRA MAY AFFECT TERMINAL OPERATIONS
AT KAVP...FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY DEVELOPING CELLS IN THIS AREA COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE.

GRADUAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON WHERE ANY
DECENT CLEARING OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG BY 06Z...AND CERTAINLY LATER IN THE NIGHT.

DUE TO THE FCST TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...WINDS WILL BE CHAOTIC
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IN GENERAL...KSYR-KRME WILL SEE E-NE
WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST MIDDAY. KITH-
KBGM-KELM SHOULD EXPERIENCE E-SELY FLOW...FOLLOWED BY A NW WIND
SHIFT FROM MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. KAVP WILL START OFF PREVAILING
SW...BECOMING NW LATE AFTERNOON. NW WINDS ARE LIKELY TO GUST 20-25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS DECREASE UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON THROUGH TUE...VFR. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE
AT KELM.

WED AND THU...RESTRICTIONS COULD RE-DEVELOP...AS SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/MLJ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
422 AM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010

PAZ038-039-060900-
BRADFORD PA-SUSQUEHANNA PA-
422 AM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BRADFORD AND WESTERN
SUSQUEHANNA COUNTIES...

* AT 420 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LE ROY...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FRANKLINDALE AND NEW ALBANY AT 430 AM EDT...
  LIBERTY CORNERS AND MONROETON AT 435 AM EDT...
  DURELL AND MACEDONIA AT 440 AM EDT...
  CAMPTOWN AND CHERRYTOWN AT 445 AM EDT...
  STEVENSVILLE AND HERRICK AT 450 AM EDT...
  RUSHVILLE AND LAWTON AT 455 AM EDT...
  BIRCHARDVILLE AND FRIENDSVILLE AT 500 AM EDT...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!

LAT...LON 4158 7677 4169 7683 4197 7598 4172 7587
      4156 7657

JAB