Tornado Warning 5, NWS La Crosse, WI

197 
WWUS53 KARX 180139
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
839 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

MNC039-180215-
/O.CON.KARX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-100618T0215Z/
DODGE MN-
839 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTY
UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A TORNADO SOUTH OF CLAREMONT
MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS TORNADO COULD PASS JUST WEST OF DODGE CENTER
AND IS HEADING TOWARD THE WEST CONCORD AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! CARS AND MOBILE HOMES SHOULD BE ABANDONED
FOR A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...LAY FLAT IN A DITCH AND
COVER YOUR HEAD.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE TORNADOES...AND CAN DO SO QUICKLY.
MOVE INTO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR
BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4393 9306 4420 9305 4420 9276 4406 9287
      4386 9306 4387 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 209DEG 27KT 4407 9299

$$

SHEA

275 
WWUS53 KARX 180149
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
849 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

MNC039-180215-
/O.CON.KARX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-100618T0215Z/
DODGE MN-
849 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTY
UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH WERE REPORTED IN DODGE CENTER WITH THIS STORM
THAT HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE TORNADO MAY BE 
PASSING NEAR THIS AREA.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO THREAT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS 
MOST OF DODGE COUNTY THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! CARS AND MOBILE HOMES SHOULD BE ABANDONED
FOR A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...LAY FLAT IN A DITCH AND
COVER YOUR HEAD.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE TORNADOES...AND CAN DO SO QUICKLY.
MOVE INTO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR
BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4393 9306 4420 9305 4420 9276 4406 9287
      4386 9306 4387 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 209DEG 27KT 4414 9294

$$
SHEA

735 
WWUS53 KARX 180203
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
903 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

MNC039-180213-
/O.CAN.KARX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-100618T0215Z/
DODGE MN-
903 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN DODGE COUNTY. STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THAT MAY PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

LAT...LON 4393 9306 4420 9305 4420 9276 4406 9287
      4386 9306 4387 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 209DEG 27KT 4424 9286

$$

SHEA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
319 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER WESTERN
ND WITH A WARM FRONT REACHING EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN...AND
A DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN SD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD
AND CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF ND AND NORTHERN MN...WHERE TORNADO
WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT. AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE...CONSIDERABLE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED...AS WELL AS SOME STRONG STORMS. ANOTHER
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT AHEAD OF IT.

OBVIOUS FIRST CONCERN IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. RUC MODEL AND
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS INDICATE PLENTY OF CAPE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN/IA WITH 4000+ J/KG. LITTLE OR NO CIN EITHER. SHEAR IS
STRONG...AND PLENTY OF FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE. EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE FIRING OVER WESTERN MN...WITH DISCRETE STORMS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN A
STRAY TORNADO. WITH TIME...ANTICIPATE THE STORMS CONGEALING INTO A
LINE OF STORMS...WHICH WILL QUICKLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SHEAR AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THIS WOULD EVOLVE
INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG WINDS BECOMING DOMINANT. AT THIS
POINT...ANTICIPATING THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WOULD PLACE A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS ON THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS LINE SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA.  FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN SET UP WITH THIS IN MIND.

THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...
WHICH WILL BE KEY TO EXPECTED OUTCOMES ON FRIDAY. IF THE ACTIVITY IS
INDEED GONE...WE SHOULD GET TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. MODEL CAPE
AGAIN FORECAST TO BE QUITE HIGH...3500+ J/KG...WITH EVEN STRONGER
BULK SHEAR. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

COLD POOL FROM THIS SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION...AND THE FACT THAT
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD
HELP TO PUSH THE ACTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A TIME. IT
APPEARS SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. HAVE KEPT THIS TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

BUT THE BOUNDARY WHICH WAS LURKING TO OUR SOUTH WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AGAIN...FEEDING OFF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE MORE STORMS ACROSS IOWA. SOME OF THESE COULD
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE
AREA IN A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW REGIME ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
RIDGING WHICH DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...AND
WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING
THROUGH THE FLOW TO GENERATE CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.  LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH SURFACE RIDGING WILL NOSE IN FOR THURSDAY TO SHIFT
ALL OF THE ACTION SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THURSDAY...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST.  OF COURSE...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION AND
THE FRONT MEANDERING ABOUT...THE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ANY DRY
OR WET PERIODS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WITH REPEATED RAIN ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST WEEK AND FAIRLY MOIST
SOILS...AND WITH RAIN IN THE FORECAST NEARLY EVERY DAY FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED. WITH MOIST
SOILS...RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO EVEN THE SMALLEST AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL. ANY AREA THAT SEES HEAVY RAINFALL...OR ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS ACROSS THE SAME AREA...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE RUNOFF
PROBLEMS. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOCUS FOR THE TAF SITES CENTER ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND INTENSITY
HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALSO REMAIN QUITE STRONG BUT WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO TIME BEST THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AT TAF LOCATIONS.
CERTAINLY A RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL SO INCLUDED THAT WITH
SQUALL WIND SHIFT IN FORECASTS.

ONCE CONVECTION PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL BUT COULD SEE REPEAT PERFORMANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE AREA AFTER 18.18Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...MW
AVIATION...SHEA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1150 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-181100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
1150 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON
CLOSER TO THE DAKOTAS AND THEN PROGRESS EAST BY EARLY EVENING.
AS THEY APPROACH THEY COULD FORM A SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEAKENING. LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...
MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE THREAT TIME FOR SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE 5 PM TO 10 PM WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND FROM 7 PM TO MIDNIGHT IN WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STORMS COULD FORM IN THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...
HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN TORNADOES BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA STARTING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH REPEATED
ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL
BE INCREASING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION APPEARS LIKELY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND AS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS APPROACH...ASSUME ACTIVATION IS NEEDED.

SPOTTERS MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR OR CONFERENCE CALL IS SCHEDULED AT THIS TIME.

SHEA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
426 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

IAZ008-009-018-MNZ079-086-087-094-095-172215-
DODGE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-HOWARD-MITCHELL-MOWER-OLMSTED-WABASHA-
426 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL TRACK EAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA BY EARLY EVENING BRINGING A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY SOME TORNADOES.

IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS EARLY THIS EVENING...PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION
TO THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO TAKE SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER
APPROACHES. WATCHES AND WARNINGS LOOK LIKELY.

USE AVAILABLE WEATHER SOURCES LIKE COMMERCIAL AND CABLE TELEVISION...
RADIO...THE INTERNET AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO TO KEEP ABREAST OF
DANGEROUS WEATHER.

SHEA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
750 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

MNZ094-180115-
MOWER-
750 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PASSING NEAR MOWER COUNTY...

AT 745 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 20
MILES NORTHWEST OF AUSTIN MINNESOTA. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP
TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR WALTHAM AND LANSING BUT THE WORST
WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF MOWER COUNTY FOR THE TIME
BEING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
755 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             BLOOMING PRAIRIE        43.87N 93.05W
06/17/2010  E0.25 INCH       DODGE              MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY RAIN

&&

DAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
807 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             BLOOMING PRAIRIE        43.87N 93.05W
06/17/2010  E0.75 INCH       DODGE              MN   PUBLIC

            THE HAIL FELL FOR A COUPLE MINUTES

&&

ADAMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
821 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     HAIL             CLAREMONT               44.04N 93.00W
06/17/2010  E1.00 INCH       DODGE              MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DAVIS