Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
239 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY EVENING.

THE 13.12Z DETERMINISTIC AND MESO MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
ADDITION...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
TWO LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SYSTEM WILL COMBINE TO CONTINUE
PROVIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WITH THE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RUNNING BETWEEN 40 AND
50 KNOTS...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SUPERCELLS. OVERALL
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE
FLASH FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...THERE
IS ALSO SOME CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW TORNADOES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE ALREADY SHOWS 0-1 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 350 IN THIS AREA.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 13.12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE MODELS ALONG WITH THE MESO MODELS SHOW
THAT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ALONG ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WITH SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT DURING THE DAY...
THE MIXED LAYER CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 1500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR
RUNNING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS...THERE LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED
SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A LINE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THE EVENING.

FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY BE
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MUCH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE 13.00Z AND 13.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ITS
AMPLITUDE/...THE GRIDS CONTINUED TO BE TRENDED TOWARD IT. AS A
RESULT...THE RAIN CHANCES WERE LEFT FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WHAT ORIGINALLY LOOKED A TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION...NOW LOOKS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK
NORTHWARD TO THE REGION. IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE A RETURN
TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SINCE
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVIATING...WE HAVE JUST KEPT A DRY FORECAST
IN PLACE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

OBVIOUS AVIATION CONCERNS CENTER ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
PLACEMENT NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AS MESO SURFACE LOW TRANSLATES EAST
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGER STORM THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS UPPER WAVES APPROACH THOUGH SO GREATEST IMPACT MORE
LIKELY THIS EVENING ONLY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THAT
AS UPPER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT WE SEE MODERATE TO STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...THIS
WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.25 INCHES AND
WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. HOURLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. OVERALL...
THERE COULD BE POTENTIALLY ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CONTINUED THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-WIZ029-
     WIZ032-WIZ033-WIZ034-WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-WIZ044-WIZ053-
     WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ054-WIZ055-
     WIZ061.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ079-MNZ086-
     MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-
     IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ010-IAZ011-
     IAZ029-IAZ030.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...TJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1147 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

IAZ008-009-018-019-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-
053-141100-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-DODGE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-HOUSTON-HOWARD-
JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-TAYLOR-
TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-WABASHA-WINONA-
1147 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE IF STRONGER STORMS IMPACT YOUR AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 90 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END ON SATURDAY AND AT THIS TIME
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THEY POSE A SEVERE WEATHER
RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS AND ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A WEBINAR WAS HELD AT 11 AM TODAY. NO ADDITIONAL CONFERENCE CALL IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THE STATE OF WISCONSIN IS HAVING A
CALL AT 1 PM TODAY.

IAZ010-011-029-030-WIZ054-055-061-141100-
ALLAMAKEE-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-GRANT-RICHLAND-WINNESHIEK-
1147 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AND A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING. IN
ADDITION TO THE FLOODING...THERE MAY BE ROCK AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
WITH STEEP TERRAIN. BESIDES THE FLOODING POTENTIAL...THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END ON SATURDAY AND AT THIS TIME
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THEY POSE A SEVERE WEATHER
RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. PLEASE
NOTE RAINFALL TOTALS AND ANY FLOODING OBSERVED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A WEBINAR WAS HELD AT 11 AM THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CONFERENCE CALL
IS SCHEDULED...ALTHOUGH THE STATE OF WISCONSIN IS HOLDING A CALL
AT 1 PM.

SHEA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
624 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     FLOOD            ROCHESTER               44.01N 92.48W
08/13/2010                   OLMSTED            MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER INTO CARS AT APACHE MALL

&&

SHEA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

WIZ017-140130-
TAYLOR-
625 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

AT 619 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CHETEK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED BETWEEN 730 PM AND 830 PM INCLUDE...
JUMP RIVER...WESTBORO...CHELSEA AND RIB LAKE.

PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.
MOVE INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

HALBACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
641 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     HAIL             EYOTA                   43.99N 92.23W
08/13/2010  E0.88 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
648 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             DOVER                   43.97N 92.13W
08/13/2010  E0.25 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0647 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DOVER                   43.97N 92.13W
08/13/2010  M3.30 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
650 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E ROCHESTER           44.01N 92.42W
08/13/2010  M2.20 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED AT CHESTER WOODS

&&

SHEA