Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
303 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT/WED
MORNING AND AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL MN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL SD. MID-DAY TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM KMSP
SHOW CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT. VIS IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATING THIS
AS WELL WITH MINIMAL/NO CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MN/WESTERN
IA AND NEARBY AREAS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ON PERIPHERY OF
THE CAP FROM CENTRAL WI TO NORTHERN WI/MN AS MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES. WELL WATERED...FULLY
TRANSPIRING CORN/SOYBEAN CROP ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AT
LEAST PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEWPOINTS MAINTAINING/RISING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTING IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 110
IN THESE AREAS.

27.12Z SHORT-RANGE MODELS INITIALIZED WITHOUT LARGE ERRORS AND
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT INTO
FRI NIGHT. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 27.12Z SHOWED MODEL RUNS OF
25.12Z AND 26.12Z VERIFIED WELL ENOUGH ACROSS NOAM...WITH BETTER
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TO ECMWF. MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARD
A COMMON SOLUTION THRU 36HRS AS THE TROUGH PASSES INTO EASTERN CAN
AND HGTS BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. FOR 36-84HRS...MODELS TRENDING TOWARD
A BETTER CONSENSUS AND STRONGER OF EARLIER SOLUTIONS WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TO TOP THE BROAD RIDGING AND DROP TOWARD/INTO THE REGION
BEYOND 72HRS. WITH THE TRENDS...RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BEYOND 60HRS
DECREASES WITH NO ONE MODEL APPEARING BETTER THAN THE OTHERS. CHECK
OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED MODELS QUITE REASONABLE WITH THE
LOW/FRONT IN THE PLAINS. GEM/NAM BETTER WITH THE SFC DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. PER WV IMAGERY...GFS/ECMWF
APPEARED BETTER WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
BLACK HILLS. ALL MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE 12-18Z CONVECTION IN MN/
WI ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP...A BLEND OF GFS/NAM APPEARED BEST. WITH
NO CLEAR MODEL FAVORITE AND MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A COMMON
SOLUTION...FAVORED THE COMMON/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. SHORT TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE AVERAGE TO GOOD RANGE THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...HEAT INDICES WILL WANE THIS EVENING AS TEMPS
DROP BACK INTO THE MID 80S. HEAT ADVISORY THRU 7PM FOR WESTERN 2/3
OF THE FCST AREA IN GOOD SHAPE UNTIL THEN.

SHORTWAVE NEAR LK WINNIPEG WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT TO EASTERN ONT BY
12Z FRI. BULK OF DYNAMICS/HGT FALLS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PASS WELL
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...BUT ATTENDANT SFC-700MB TROUGH/FRONT WILL
SLIDE INTO/ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SFC-700MB AXIS OF STRONGER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION WILL SINK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH MODEST 850-700MB
FN CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNDER
A CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...
WHEN MU CAPE VALUES WILL BE THE HIGHEST. APPEARS CONVECTION INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE CAPPING ERODES AND THE
FRONT ARRIVES. ADDED MORE TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO POP/WEATHER GRIDS
FOR TONIGHT WITH TIMING OF FRONT INTO THE AREA. SWODY1 REASONABLE...
WITH NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION THE
EARLIEST WITH MU CAPE VALUES STILL IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5K J/KG RANGE.
SHEAR ALSO STRONGER ACROSS THE NORTH PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...
CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS ONT. WITH CONVECTION
LIKELY TIED CLOSELY TO THE FRONT...ONLY CARRIED A SHRA/TSRA CHANCE
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO 60 TO 80 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF
THE FCST AREA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES IN.
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED MORNING WITH A DRIER AIRMASS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND IT. LINGERING -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED MORNING REASONABLE. DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WED AFTERNOON THRU THU EVENING...WITH
NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALREADY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THU. TIGHTER MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION FRI. MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY/LOWER LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT INCREASE INTO THE AREA FOR LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. AGAIN WITH AN INCREASING MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS...
RAISED RAIN CHANCES LATE THU NIGHT/FRI AND LEFT THE LINGERING 20-30
PERCENT RAIN CHANCE FOR FRI NIGHT.

FAVORING THE ENSEMBLE/MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTION...FAVORED BLEND OF
NUMERICAL TEMP GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...HIGHS WED MAY BE A BIT WARM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA. WITH ALL THE
WETNESS ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE AND RETURN OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS THU
NIGHT...DID TREND TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS THU NIGHT. HIGHS
FRI TRICKY DEPENDING ON TIMING OF CLOUDS AND ANY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE NEXT TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

27.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS SAT...THOUGH TREND IS A BIT STRONGER
WITH THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND A BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE MID-CONUS
RIDGING. BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN ON SUN...WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON TIMING/STRENGTH DETAILS OF
SHORTWAVES THRU THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS. THE SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO MON/
TUE...WITH SOME CONSENSUS FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH TO
FLATTEN THE MID-CONUS RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/
UPPER MIDWEST MON/TUE. TREND/CONSENSUS IS FASTER/STRONGER WITH THIS
FEATURE AT 00Z TUE...WITH TROUGHING TO REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS...IN A TRADITIONALLY
MORE ACTIVE/DIFFICULT TO FCST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...LONG TERM
FCST CONFIDENCE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE THIS CYCLE. PREFERRED A MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OVER ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC MODEL. FRI SYSTEM
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT/SUN. REMOVED SMALL
RAIN CHANCE FROM SAT AND LEFT SUN DRY. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSING SHORTWAVE.
WITH THE FASTER MODEL CONSENSUS...LOWER LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/
LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB LOW...AND FALLING HGTS ALOFT ALREADY
START TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA MON. ADDED A SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE TO
NORTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA FOR MON. LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO/ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT/TUE...WITH CHANCE SHRA/TSRA
REASONABLE THESE PERIODS. FAVORED A BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

TRICKY FORECASTING PERIOD...IN PARTICULAR TONIGHT WITH TIMING
THUNDERSTORMS AND IF THEY WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES. BOTH TAF SITES
WERE CAPPED FROM DEVELOPING CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
EVIDENCED BY VERY FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
STAY THAT WAY FOR THE EARLY EVENING...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ALONG A COLD FRONT. AS THIS COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST...EXPECTATION IS TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN THE 04-09Z TIME
PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMS ON THE FRONT COULD SPLIT INTO TWO PARTS AS
A FEW MODELS SUGGEST...ALLOWING BOTH TAF SITES TO BE MISSED. LATER
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM TRENDS. FOR NOW...LEFT
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF A VCTS AND CB MENTION...BUT CERTAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IF STORMS DO INDEED MOVE THROUGH. AFTER
09Z...DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS MINNESOTA...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ032-WIZ033-
     WIZ041-WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ061.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-MNZ086-
     MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-
     IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...RRS
AVIATION..........AJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
710 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-033-041-053-281000-
BUFFALO-DODGE-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-LA CROSSE-MOWER-OLMSTED-TREMPEALEAU-
VERNON-WABASHA-WINONA-
710 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 9 PM AND 5 AM. DAMAGING WINDS...
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

THERE ARE ALSO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DISCERN ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

WIZ017-281000-
TAYLOR-
710 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 9 PM AND 5 AM. DAMAGING WINDS...
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

WIZ029-034-042>044-281000-
ADAMS-CLARK-JACKSON-JUNEAU-MONROE-
710 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 9 PM AND 5 AM. DAMAGING WINDS...
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

THERE ARE ALSO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DISCERN ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-WIZ054-055-061-281000-
ALLAMAKEE-CHICKASAW-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOWARD-
MITCHELL-RICHLAND-WINNESHIEK-
710 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

THERE ARE ALSO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH ANY
REPORTS OF GUSTY WINDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WOULD BE
APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

AJ/RIECK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
740 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

WIZ017-280200-
TAYLOR-
740 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

...TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY 9 PM...IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

RIECK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
800 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

WIZ029-032>034-280300-
BUFFALO-CLARK-JACKSON-TREMPEALEAU-
800 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE AREA AFTER 10 PM.
STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

RIECK

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