Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS La Crosse, WI

314 
WWUS53 KARX 180435
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

WIC023-043-103-180515-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-100618T0515Z/
RICHLAND WI-GRANT WI-CRAWFORD WI-
1135 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CRAWFORD...
NORTHERN GRANT AND SOUTHERN RICHLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED WINDS OF 70 MPH IN HARPERS FERRY 
WITH A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AT 1131 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THESE STORMS WERE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF VIROQUA TO 10 MILES NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...MOVING EAST
AT 50 MPH. THESE STORMS CAN PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FENNIMORE AROUND 1145 PM...
  RICHLAND CENTER AND MUSCODA AROUND 1155 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE
STORMS...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...WHICH CAN UPROOT
TREES...DOWN POWER LINES...AND CAUSE DAMAGE TO ROOFS AND WINDOWS.
EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES AS THEY MAY BE OVERTURNED. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE TORNADOES...AND CAN DO SO QUICKLY.
MOVE INTO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR
BUSINESS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.

&&

LAT...LON 4317 9020 4320 9025 4321 9031 4320 9042
      4294 9042 4295 9115 4307 9116 4321 9112
      4326 9107 4332 9108 4343 9104 4343 9019
      4317 9019
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 263DEG 45KT 4340 9065 4304 9083
WIND...HAIL 70MPH <.50IN

$$

HALBACH

329 
WWUS53 KARX 180454
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1154 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

WIC023-180504-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-100618T0515Z/
CRAWFORD WI-
1154 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CRAWFORD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THAT MAY PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4317 9020 4320 9025 4321 9031 4320 9042
      4294 9042 4295 9075 4343 9058 4343 9019
      4317 9019
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 263DEG 45KT 4342 9034 4303 9051

$$

WIC043-103-180515-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-100618T0515Z/
RICHLAND WI-GRANT WI-
1154 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
GRANT AND SOUTHERN RICHLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1149 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THESE STORMS WERE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RICHLAND CENTER
TO FENNIMORE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STORMS CAN PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL SOUTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTY AT 1210 AM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE TORNADOES...AND CAN DO SO QUICKLY.
MOVE INTO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR
BUSINESS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.

&&

LAT...LON 4317 9020 4320 9025 4321 9031 4320 9042
      4294 9042 4295 9075 4343 9058 4343 9019
      4317 9019
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 263DEG 45KT 4342 9034 4303 9051
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

HALBACH

058 
WWUS53 KARX 180510
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1210 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

WIC043-103-180521-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-100618T0515Z/
RICHLAND WI-GRANT WI-
1210 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN GRANT AND
SOUTHERN RICHLAND COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1215 AM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THAT MAY PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4317 9020 4320 9025 4321 9031 4320 9042
      4294 9042 4295 9075 4343 9058 4343 9019
      4317 9019
TIME...MOT...LOC 0511Z 263DEG 45KT 4344 9005 4305 9022

$$

HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
319 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER WESTERN
ND WITH A WARM FRONT REACHING EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN...AND
A DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN SD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD
AND CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF ND AND NORTHERN MN...WHERE TORNADO
WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT. AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE...CONSIDERABLE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED...AS WELL AS SOME STRONG STORMS. ANOTHER
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT AHEAD OF IT.

OBVIOUS FIRST CONCERN IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. RUC MODEL AND
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS INDICATE PLENTY OF CAPE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN/IA WITH 4000+ J/KG. LITTLE OR NO CIN EITHER. SHEAR IS
STRONG...AND PLENTY OF FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE. EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE FIRING OVER WESTERN MN...WITH DISCRETE STORMS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN A
STRAY TORNADO. WITH TIME...ANTICIPATE THE STORMS CONGEALING INTO A
LINE OF STORMS...WHICH WILL QUICKLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SHEAR AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THIS WOULD EVOLVE
INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG WINDS BECOMING DOMINANT. AT THIS
POINT...ANTICIPATING THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WOULD PLACE A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS ON THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS LINE SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA.  FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN SET UP WITH THIS IN MIND.

THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...
WHICH WILL BE KEY TO EXPECTED OUTCOMES ON FRIDAY. IF THE ACTIVITY IS
INDEED GONE...WE SHOULD GET TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. MODEL CAPE
AGAIN FORECAST TO BE QUITE HIGH...3500+ J/KG...WITH EVEN STRONGER
BULK SHEAR. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

COLD POOL FROM THIS SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION...AND THE FACT THAT
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD
HELP TO PUSH THE ACTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A TIME. IT
APPEARS SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. HAVE KEPT THIS TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

BUT THE BOUNDARY WHICH WAS LURKING TO OUR SOUTH WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AGAIN...FEEDING OFF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE MORE STORMS ACROSS IOWA. SOME OF THESE COULD
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE
AREA IN A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW REGIME ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
RIDGING WHICH DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...AND
WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING
THROUGH THE FLOW TO GENERATE CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.  LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH SURFACE RIDGING WILL NOSE IN FOR THURSDAY TO SHIFT
ALL OF THE ACTION SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THURSDAY...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST.  OF COURSE...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION AND
THE FRONT MEANDERING ABOUT...THE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ANY DRY
OR WET PERIODS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WITH REPEATED RAIN ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST WEEK AND FAIRLY MOIST
SOILS...AND WITH RAIN IN THE FORECAST NEARLY EVERY DAY FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED. WITH MOIST
SOILS...RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO EVEN THE SMALLEST AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL. ANY AREA THAT SEES HEAVY RAINFALL...OR ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS ACROSS THE SAME AREA...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE RUNOFF
PROBLEMS. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOCUS FOR THE TAF SITES CENTER ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND INTENSITY
HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALSO REMAIN QUITE STRONG BUT WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO TIME BEST THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AT TAF LOCATIONS.
CERTAINLY A RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL SO INCLUDED THAT WITH
SQUALL WIND SHIFT IN FORECASTS.

ONCE CONVECTION PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL BUT COULD SEE REPEAT PERFORMANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE AREA AFTER 18.18Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...MW
AVIATION...SHEA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1150 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-181100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
1150 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON
CLOSER TO THE DAKOTAS AND THEN PROGRESS EAST BY EARLY EVENING.
AS THEY APPROACH THEY COULD FORM A SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEAKENING. LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...
MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE THREAT TIME FOR SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE 5 PM TO 10 PM WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND FROM 7 PM TO MIDNIGHT IN WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STORMS COULD FORM IN THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...
HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN TORNADOES BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA STARTING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH REPEATED
ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL
BE INCREASING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION APPEARS LIKELY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND AS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS APPROACH...ASSUME ACTIVATION IS NEEDED.

SPOTTERS MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR OR CONFERENCE CALL IS SCHEDULED AT THIS TIME.

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1047 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 PM     HAIL             NODINE                  43.90N 91.45W
06/17/2010  E1.00 INCH       WINONA             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1049 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S GALESVILLE          44.07N 91.36W
06/17/2010                   TREMPEALEAU        WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING A LANE OF HIGHWAY 53.

&&

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1053 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ETTRICK                 44.17N 91.27W
06/17/2010                   TREMPEALEAU        WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1055 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 PM     HAIL             2 S HOLMEN              43.93N 91.26W
06/17/2010  E0.25 INCH       LA CROSSE          WI   PUBLIC

&&

ADAMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1057 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW SPRING GROVE       43.52N 91.70W
06/17/2010                   HOUSTON            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 44.

&&

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1120 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 PM     TSTM WND GST     HARPERS FERRY           43.20N 91.15W
06/17/2010  E70.00 MPH       ALLAMAKEE          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

04