Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
347 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MUCH OF THE ATTENTION FOR TODAY HAS BEEN WATCHING THE DEEPENING
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE APPEARS TO BE
TWO WARM FRONTS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE FIRST IS LOCATED NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THE SECOND ONE EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH
OF SIOUX FALL SOUTH DAKOTA EAST TO ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA TO
MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
CARPENTER SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWARD TO YANKTON SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST TO CHAMBERS NEBRASKA. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND A 900 T0 700 MB
FRONTOGENTIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE IN THE WARM SECTOR SOME SUNSHINE HAS BROKEN OUT AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. THE 15.12Z AND 15.18Z MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS A RESULT
THERE IS A FEELING THAT THE MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE A BIT TOO HIGH
AND THEY SHOULD BE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE INSTEAD OF 2000
TO 2500 J/KG...AND THIS COULD BECOME A FACTOR AS WE LOSE DIURNAL
HEATING THIS EVENING. WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION...THE
SHEAR IS NOT...AND IT IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPER CELLS AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY BY THE TIME THE
THUNDERSTORMS GET INTO OUR AREA WHICH SHOULD BE AFTER 15.23Z. WE
WILL INITIALLY HAVE TO WATCH THE WARM FRONT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. IF THIS
OCCURRED...IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT WOULD BE LIMITED TO BETWEEN
15.23Z AND 16.01Z. HOWEVER THE GREATER CONCERN /ALBEIT STILL
SMALL/ LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THE QLCS
THAT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG IT. THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME WIND DAMAGE BETWEEN 16.01Z AND 16.04Z.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE 925 AND 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS NOT OVERLY
THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN ADDITION...THE INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT.
THE 0-3 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 300 J/KG AND
THE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE RUNNING LESS THAN 600 J/JG. AS
A RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WERE LEFT IN THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE DESPITE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN THE MODELS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE 15.00Z AND 15.12Z MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
POSITION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS THE STRONG TROPICAL FORCING THAT HAS
RESIDED ACROSS INDONESIA FOR MUCH OF SEPTEMBER SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN. AS A RESULT...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD.

IN THE 15.12Z MODELS...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THIS FRONT WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BECAUSE THERE WILL BE ELEVATED
CAPES AND SHEAR FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SUPER CELLS. IF
THIS DOES OCCUR...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL.
BESIDES THIS...THE FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL OF A MAJOR BUST
POTENTIAL WITH OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. IF WE ARE ABLE
TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. MEANWHILE IF WE STAY IN THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S.

ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOW GREAT WILL THIS POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON CLEAN
THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH THURSDAY

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO BOTH KLSE AND KRST TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITED THE TAF SITES
LATE THIS MORNING. NEXT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MOVES EAST INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST 15.12Z LOCAL
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AROUND OR AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS TIMING OF CONVECTION IN
THE KRST TAF AT 22Z AND 00Z AT KLSE TAF. LATEST 15.12Z NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO WRAP AROUND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WITH
BOTH MODELS INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 925MB WRAPPING AROUND
LOW PRESSURE AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...HAVE KEPT TREND OF LIFR/IFR
CEILING CONDITIONS AT BOTH KRST AND KLSE AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.

IN ADDITION...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AND BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KRST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
130 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-161100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-
LA CROSSE-MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-
VERNON-WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
130 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OR ALL
OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY
WITH ANY STORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS STILL TO EARLY TO
DETERMINE THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF THE POTENTIAL
STORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

DTJ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
935 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

MNZ095-160300-
FILLMORE-
935 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM CROSSING NORTHERN FILLMORE COUNTY...

AT 932 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
FOUNTAIN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
ISINOURS...OLD BARN CAMPGROUND...PILOT MOUND...LANESBORO AND WHALAN.

AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
945 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW LANSING            43.73N 93.00W
09/15/2010                   MOWER              MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            APPOX.6 TREES BLOWN DOWN AND CAMPER SITTING ON BLOCKS
            TOPPLED.

&&

ADAMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1007 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

MNZ095-096-160400-
FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
1007 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM CROSSING NORTHEAST FILLMORE
COUNTY...

AT 1002 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORM OVER WHALAN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
PETERSON...BRATSBERG...RUSHFORD AND HOUSTON.

IF THE STORM INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE...IT COULD BECOME SEVERE. IF
A WARNING IS ISSUED...MOVE INDOORS AND TAKE ANY OTHER ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

AJ