River Flood Warning 59, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
318 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS FOR HEAVY RAIN
FALLING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY RAIN FALLING
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTESTATE 90. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS BAND. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING.

TODAY...NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL INDICATING WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
SHIFTING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. RUC SUGGESTS FRONT MAY DRIFT NORTH
MORE SLOWLY...KEEPING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE RUC SOLUTION APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE RUC SOLUTION FOR POPS THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR THE WARM
FRONT TO BE POSITIONED FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO THESE AREAS. COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD MOVES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
23.00 MODELS INDICATING A FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD END PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY SLOT WILL MOVE EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT FRIDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINS ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHICH COULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
CLOUDS MAY CLEAR LONG ENOUGH FOR FOG TO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED AREAS
OF FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA. THIS
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT FOG PERSISTENCE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL
WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND CLOSES INTO AN UPPER LOW. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

23.00 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN IOWA
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
MISSOURI ON SUNDAY SHIFTING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE
UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME...MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE GFS HAS THE
WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WAVE
DIGGING SOUTH AND MERGING WITH LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY INTO TUESDAY AS IT APPEARS THE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEST TO EAST RUNNING WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LAYING UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI IS PROGGED TO LIFT MORE NORTH
TODAY...NORTH OF KRST/KLSE. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE RETURN
WILL CONTINUE TO POWER INTO AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...KEEPING
THE AREAS OF SHRA/TS GOING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
THE FRONT LIFTS THOUGH...THE RAIN THREAT COULD ABATE FOR A SHORT
TIME...WITH BETTER CHANCES AT KLSE. CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY ON WHERE THE
FRONT WILL END UP THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST 00/06Z MODELS AREN/T
DOING A GREAT JOB WITH CURRENT FRONT AND RESULTING QPF.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. EXPECT
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION TO FIRE ON THIS FRONT...AND COULD BRING A
FEW HOURS OF SHRA/TS TO THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRI.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROBABLY
MORE PREDOMINANT THAN NOT AT KRST. KLSE LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO BREAK INTO VFR CONDITIONS IF/WHEN THE FRONT LIFTS MORE TO
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. DRY SLOT POST THE COLD FRONT COULD IMPROVE
THINGS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT AT BOTH KRST/KLSE...BUT WRAP
AROUND CLOUDS IN THE DEFORMATION AREA OF THE LOW COULD SLIDE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RIGHT BACK ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. THERE MAY NOT BE IMPROVEMENT IN THE CEILINGS UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE SHRA/TS AND CEILING...WINDS SHOULD BE
BLUSTERY/GUSTY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...STAYING RELATIVELY STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST WHEN THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO ABOUT 24070KT AT 3500 FT BY
4 PM...WHICH COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE MUCH OF A DROP OFF IN SPEEDS UNTIL
FRIDAY EVENING THEN THE LOW EXITS EAST AND A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS
IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM 200-270 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND WITH THE WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 4KM TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS MORNING THEN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS
GENERATING AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ017-WIZ029-WIZ032-
     WIZ033-WIZ034-WIZ041-WIZ042.

MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-MNZ086-MNZ087-
     MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.

IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RIECK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>