River Flood Warning 22, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN SERVING AS ONE FOCUS FOR
PCPN GENERATION OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUE-WED...GENERALLY FROM NORTHWEST WI INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE 05.12Z GFS AND NAM WOULD TAKE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...SLIDE IT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS INTERACTION
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE BANDS OF SHOWERS TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT THOUGH...AND HANGS THERE THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS JUICED...AND THAT HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD
PERSIST AS A RESULT. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
INSTABILITY REMAINS MINIMAL DUE TO THE REPEATED RAINS/CLOUDS...AND
SHEAR IS ALSO NOT IMPRESSIVE //MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 0-3KM
LAYER//. THAT SAID...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS...IF A BIT
MORE INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED.

FOR WED...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH A LOFT WILL BE TRACKING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL SLIDE A SFC FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUE...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR WED. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE EXISTING WEAK
FRONT...ALTHOUGH FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE IS STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
THROUGH THE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SOME HINTS IN THE GFS AND NAM
THAT A BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD SPIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...IN THE MEAN FLOW...ACCENTUATING THE AVAILABLE LIFT VIA
THE SFC BOUNDARIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. EXPECT CONVECTION
ALONG THE PLAINS FRONT...WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE
LINGERING FRONT/POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE. THESE TWO AREAS WILL PROBABLY
MERGE...SO TO SPEAK...LATE IN THE DAY WED. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
REMAINS...AND SEVERE PARAMETERS LOOK SIMILAR TO TUE...SO DON/T
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT LOCALLY RIGHT NOW.

THE TROUGH WILL EASE EAST ON THU/FRI...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF
A KICK TO THE SFC FRONT TO FINALLY INCH IT JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME PCPN CHANCES FOR THE BETTER PART OF
THU FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE BULK OF THESE
CHANCES SHOULD EXIT BY THE EVENING.

OVERALL...A WET WEATHER PATTERN...WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN...WILL
CONTINUE. SOMEWHAT MESSY PATTERN THOUGH...WITH VARIOUS BOUNDARIES
AND SMALLER SHORTWAVES TO PROVIDE THE PCPN FOCUS...SO CONFIDENCE IS
NOT TOO HIGH IN THE FINER DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN FOR HIGHEST PCPN
CHANCES. IN SOME CASES HAD TO BROAD BRUSH THE CHANCES A BIT MORE
THAN I WOULD HAVE LIKED. HOPEFULLY MORE REFINEMENT CAN BE MADE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE FORECAST PACKAGES AND IN BETWEEN UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

VERY MUDDLED PATTERN WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS REPRESENTED IN THE
LONG TERM MODELS. LATEST GFS AND GEM TREND TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THEIR UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS...ESPECIALLY WITH THEIR TROUGHING
OVER CANADA TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT WORK WEEK...AND RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST. THE EC IS MUCH FLATTER...AND AS A RESULT...WANTS TO
LINGER A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LONGER THIS
WEEK...WITH THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/GEM NUDGING IT EAST
ABOUT A DAY SOONER. THE MODELS HAVEN/T BEEN OVERLY CONSISTENT WITHIN
THEMSELVES...AND THE LATEST ENSEMBLE RUN WOULD SEEM TO PUT AN EQUAL
NUMBER OF MEMBERS IN BOTH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. AS A
RESULT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW HEADING INTO
THE NEW WEEKEND. THAT SAID...WHAT DOES LOOK REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT
IS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR FRI/SAT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SFC FRONT SLIDING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. WILL
LIKELY LEAN ON HPC FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A VERY MOIST/HUMID
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW WILL RIPPLE NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT...BUT AS THE LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS LATER TONIGHT...SOME FOG AND LOWER STRATUS MAY
BRING IN IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN THE 06.09-13Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS 4000-4500 M...PWS UPWARDS
OF 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. SO ANY SHOWER OR
STORM SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...ALONG WITH A LIKELIHOOD
OF HEAVY RAIN. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY THOUGH...THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS EAST...WITH THE BULK OF ITS INFLUENCE
STAYING THERE. TO INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING...SIGNIFICANT
RAIN THREAT...HAVING THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORMAL TO
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WOULD BE NEARLY IDEAL. THIS DOES NOT LOOK
TO BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY AS THE THE HEAVY RAIN
SHIFTED NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT SOLD
THAT ANOTHER WATCH WILL NOT BE NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI IN THE NEAR FUTURE. LINGERING SFC FRONT...VARIOUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES...AND JUICY ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS...AND HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. COOP REPORTS
FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED UP TO 2 INCHES OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST
IA...EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF SW/CENTRAL WI. MANY RIVERS ARE NEAR
BANKFULL IN THESE AREAS...AND CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST SOME
COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE. WHILE THE THREAT FOR A COUNTY WIDE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT LOOKS LESS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RIVER AND STREAM
FLOODING REMAINS. THOSE WHO LIVE NEAR TO WATERWAYS IN NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WATER LEVELS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAVY RAINFALL OR INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL RESULT
IN RAPID RUNOFF...AND QUICK RISES ON THE RIVERS/STREAMS.

SO...WHILE NOT ISSUING AN ADDITIONAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY... RIECK
AVIATION.................... DAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1142 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-061100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
1142 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER AND RISES ON
AREA RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.
HOWEVER...DUE TO A LINGERING VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER
AND RISES ON AREA RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
ANY RAINFALL...HIGH WATER OR FLOODING REPORTS WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

DAS/RRS

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