Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
525 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

.UPDATE...850MB-SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 00Z SHOWED THE RICH MOISTURE
POOL ALONG I-80 CORRIDOR AND SLIGHTLY NORTH. HAVE BEEN WATCHING
PROFILERS ALL NIGHT WITH 10-20KT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER IA/IL ADVECTING
THIS NORTHWARD WHERE 200-300 J/KG OF MUCAPE STILL REMAINS. BOTH THE
850MB AND 925MB 10Z PROFILERS ARE SHOWING WEAK...ALONG
STREAMLINE /SPEED/ MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN A BROAD AREA ACROSS IOWA
AND NRN IL/SRN WI. THIS CONVERGENCE IS MAINLY SPEED CONVERGENT FLOW
FROM 15KTS NEAR KMLI TO 5-10KTS ACROSS WI. NOT MUCH...BUT AIR MASS IS
SO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS IT IS UNSTABLE TO A LITTLE PUSH.

NCEP RUC LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH THE WIND FLOW IN THESE LOW-LEVELS
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
THE FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TOWARD THE S-SE AND FOCUS OF CONVERGENCE
SHIFTS NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COLD FRONT FROM HAYWARD TO KMSP-KOMA BY
21Z. THUS...BELIEVE THE MORNING SHOWERS MAY GIVE A BREAK MID-DAY AS
ATMOSPHERE ADJUSTS BACK TO THE WEST WITH THE FORCING.

WILL BE SENDING AN UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE MORNING
RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

BAUMGARDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
417 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-081100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
417 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MORNING FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN SOME AREAS TO LESS THAN 1/4
OF A MILE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT DUE TO LIMITED ORGANIZATION AND UNFAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES...LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
ANY STORMS THAT BECOME ANCHORED IN THE SAME AREA FOR SOME TIME COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OF RAIN AND LEAD TO LOCAL WATER PROBLEMS.

PORTIONS OF THE KICKAPOO RIVER ARE RUNNING AT BANKFULL STAGE OR
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE TODAY OR THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY TO WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DISCERN THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
RECENT RAINFALL...HIGH WATER OR FLOODING REPORTS WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

BAUMGARDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
747 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     FLASH FLOOD      OELWEIN                 42.68N 91.91W
07/07/2010                   FAYETTE            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING. HIGHWAY 150 NEARLY
            IMPASSABLE. NUMEROUS VEHICLES STRANDED.

&&

RANDYB

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