Alert archive / Michigan / Wind Advisories in 2010

Wind Advisory 3, NWS Gaylord, MI

September 23, 201022 counties in Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this wind advisory at Sep 23, 2010, 4:15 PM EDT for 22 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Sep 24, 2010, 4:47 AM EDT. It was in force for 23 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 23, 2010, 4:15 PM EDT (20:15 UTC)
In effect from
Sep 24, 2010, 4:47 AM EDT
Expired
Sep 25, 2010, 3:52 AM EDT
In force
23 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI
All 22 counties

Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2010-09-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2010-09-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 201 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
460 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
201 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
265 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

620 
WWUS73 KAPX 232015
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
415 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...INCREASING WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A TIGHT GRADIENT OF PRESSURE
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS TO MUCH OF
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

MIZ016-017-019>022-025>028-031>033-241200-
/O.NEW.KAPX.WI.Y.0003.100924T1200Z-100925T0000Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
415 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

* HAZARDS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 

* WIND SPEED...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE
  EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CAUSE SMALLER LIMBS OR TREES TO
  BREAK OR UPROOT...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
  ADDITION...WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT
  TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE
  VEHICLES.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

LAWRENCE
7 follow-up statements
985 
WWUS73 KAPX 240214
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1014 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...INCREASING WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
PRESSURE AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS TO MUCH
OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

MIZ016-017-019>022-025>028-031>033-241615-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0003.100924T1200Z-100925T0000Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
1014 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

* HAZARDS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

* WIND SPEED...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE 
  EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. 

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CAUSE SMALLER LIMBS OR TREES 
  TO BREAK OR UPROOT...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IN 
  ADDITION...WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
275 
WWUS73 KAPX 240847
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
447 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...INCREASING WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. A TIGHT GRADIENT OF PRESSURE AROUND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT.

MIZ018-023-024-029-030-034>036-041-042-242300-
/O.EXB.KAPX.WI.Y.0003.100924T1500Z-100925T0000Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-
IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...
GLADWIN...STANDISH
447 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING. 

* HAZARDS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WIND SPEED...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE
  EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CAUSE SMALLER LIMBS OR TREES 
  TO BREAK OR UPROOT...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IN 
  ADDITION...WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

MIZ016-019>021-025-031-242300-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WI.Y.0003.100924T0847Z-100925T0900Z/
EMMET-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...
MANCELONA...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE
447 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY. 

* HAZARDS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
  BECOMING MORE WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

* WIND SPEED...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE
  EXPECTED...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. WIND
  GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CAUSE SMALLER LIMBS OR TREES 
  TO BREAK OR UPROOT...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IN 
  ADDITION...WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

MIZ017-022-026>028-032-033-242300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0003.100924T1200Z-100925T0000Z/
CHEBOYGAN-OTSEGO-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...GAYLORD...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
447 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING. 

* HAZARDS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WIND SPEED...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE
  EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CAUSE SMALLER LIMBS OR TREES 
  TO BREAK OR UPROOT...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IN 
  ADDITION...WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

JPB
121 
WWUS73 KAPX 241446
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1046 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
PRESSURE AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT.

MIZ016-019>021-025-031-250000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-100925T0900Z/
EMMET-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...
MANCELONA...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE
1046 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY. 

* HAZARDS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... 
  BECOMING MORE WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT. 

* WIND SPEED...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE 
  EXPECTED...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. WIND 
  GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. 

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CAUSE SMALLER LIMBS OR TREES 
  TO BREAK OR UPROOT...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IN 
  ADDITION...WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

MIZ017-022-026>028-032-033-250000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-100925T0000Z/
CHEBOYGAN-OTSEGO-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...GAYLORD...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
1046 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* HAZARDS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WIND SPEED...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE 
  EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. 

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CAUSE SMALLER LIMBS OR TREES 
  TO BREAK OR UPROOT...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IN 
  ADDITION...WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

MIZ018-023-024-029-030-034>036-041-042-250000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0003.100924T1500Z-100925T0000Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-
IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...
GLADWIN...STANDISH
1046 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* HAZARDS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WIND SPEED...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE 
  EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. 

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CAUSE SMALLER LIMBS OR TREES 
  TO BREAK OR UPROOT...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IN 
  ADDITION...WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

LAWRENCE
949 
WWUS73 KAPX 241943
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO
QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. A TIGHT GRADIENT OF PRESSURE AROUND THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH STRONG WINDS PERSISTING ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MIZ016-019>021-025-031-250900-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-100925T0900Z/
EMMET-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...
MANCELONA...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE
343 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY. 

* HAZARDS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...
  SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

* WIND SPEED...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
  CONTINUE...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. WIND
  GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CAUSE SMALLER LIMBS OR TREES 
  TO BREAK OR UPROOT...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IN 
  ADDITION...WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

MIZ017-022-026>028-032-033-250000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-100925T0000Z/
CHEBOYGAN-OTSEGO-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...GAYLORD...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
343 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* HAZARDS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* WIND SPEED...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE 
  EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. 

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CAUSE SMALLER LIMBS OR TREES 
  TO BREAK OR UPROOT...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IN 
  ADDITION...WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

MIZ018-023-024-029-030-034>036-041-042-250000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-100925T0000Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-
IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...
GLADWIN...STANDISH
343 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* HAZARDS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WIND SPEED...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE 
  EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. 

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CAUSE SMALLER LIMBS OR TREES 
  TO BREAK OR UPROOT...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IN 
  ADDITION...WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

LAWRENCE
201 
WWUS73 KAPX 250012
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
812 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO
QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. A TIGHT GRADIENT OF PRESSURE AROUND THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MIZ017-018-022>024-026>030-032>036-041-042-250115-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-100925T0000Z/
CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-GRAND TRAVERSE-
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...GAYLORD...
ATLANTA...ALPENA...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
812 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

HOWEVER WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES
DURING THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.

$$

MIZ016-019>021-025-031-250900-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-100925T0900Z/
EMMET-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...
MANCELONA...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE
812 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY. 

* HAZARDS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING... 
  SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. 

* WIND SPEED...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL 
  CONTINUE...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. WIND 
  GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY. 

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CAUSE SMALLER LIMBS OR TREES 
  TO BREAK OR UPROOT...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IN 
  ADDITION...WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
601 
WWUS73 KAPX 250219
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1019 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO
QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. A TIGHT GRADIENT OF PRESSURE AROUND THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MIZ008-015-250900-
/O.EXA.KAPX.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-100925T0900Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1019 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY. 

* HAZARDS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING... 
  SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. 

* WIND SPEED...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
  CONTINUE...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. WIND
  GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
  SHORELINES OF THE GREAT LAKES.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CAUSE SMALLER LIMBS OR TREES 
  TO BREAK OR UPROOT...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IN 
  ADDITION...WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

MIZ016-019>021-025-031-250900-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-100925T0900Z/
EMMET-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...
MANCELONA...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE
1019 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY. 

* HAZARDS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING... 
  SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. 

* WIND SPEED...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL 
  CONTINUE...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. WIND 
  GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY. 

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CAUSE SMALLER LIMBS OR TREES 
  TO BREAK OR UPROOT...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IN 
  ADDITION...WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

JZ
556 
WWUS73 KAPX 250752
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
352 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010


MIZ008-015-016-019>021-025-031-250900-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-100925T0900Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-BENZIE-
MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE...
PETOSKEY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...FRANKFORT...
MANISTEE
352 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. A FEW GUSTS OF 40 TO
45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE COASTLINE OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

$$

JZ

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Sep 23, 4:09 PM EDT, 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 23, 4:09 PM EDT, 6 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
409 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO FAR NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY RAINFREE WITH SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/...TONIGHT

PER 19Z SFC MAP AND RADAR DATA...WARM FRONT MAKING A SURGE NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON...NOW ROUGHLY CUTTING THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT
COUNTIES AND HIGHLIGHTED BY A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. BKN AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER THE S/SW COUNTIES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND WHERE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY VALUES HAVE CREPT UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG. BUT
GOOD NEWS...HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THOSE AREAS THAT
PICKED UP OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. HEAVIER RAIN NOW
SETTING UP TO TARGET UPPER MICHIGAN/TIP OF THE MITT FOR TONIGHT AND
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR (SOUTH OF
THE M-32 CORRIDOR) SHOULD FIZZLE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THEN...SFC WARM FRONT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE STRAITS
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHICH
APPEARS ON TRACK GIVEN RECENT TRENDS. LARGE SLUG OF RAINFALL
STRETCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
NRN MICHIGAN...DRIVEN BY STRONG UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING
AND VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW PUNCHING UP INTO THE REGION
AND INTO THE FRONT. LARGE MASS OF RAINFALL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
NORTHWARD AND EXPECTED TO TARGET EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE TIP
OF THE MITT FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO PRESS INTO THE REGION TOWARD MORNING. ACCORDINGLY...
PLAN IS TO CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
BEFORE FOLDING HIGHER POPS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARD
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH PWAT VALUES UP OVER 2
INCHES AND INTO RECORD TERRITORY. FORTUNATELY...TONIGHTS RAIN WILL
TARGET AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN GENERALLY UNDER HALF AN INCH THUS
FAR...AND PLAN NO HYDRO HEADLINES FOR NOW. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.

AS FAR AS WINDS ARE CONCERNED...CERTAINLY SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE WINDS
DEVELOP ALOFT BY LATE EVENING TO THE TUNE OF 50 TO 70 KNOTS BETWEEN
925 MB AND 850 MB. BUT OF COURSE GETTING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
THAT WIND TO THE SFC IN SUCH A STRONG WAA REGIME IS TOUGH. THOUGHT
IS AT BEST WE SEE GALE GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH INLAND. SO NO LAND BASED WIND
HEADLINES PLANNED TONIGHT. STRONGEST SFC WINDS COME EARLY FRIDAY
AFTER FROPA AND WITH THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION BUT WE WILL LEAVE
THAT FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ASSESS.

ADAM

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/...FRIDAY AND BEYOND

FRI THRU MON...MAIN FCST FOCUS CLEARLY ON RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION INTO FRI/FRI NIGHT...WITH FEW CONCERNS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. 995MB SFC CYCLONE EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ABOUT NEAR KMQT AROUND 12Z FRI WILL TRACK ACRS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
FRI EVENING...WITH SFC OCCLUDED FRONT SLICING ACRS THE CWA INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF COLD
ADVECTION INTO THE AFTN. INITIAL CONCERNS DEAL WITH LINGERING PRECIP
ALONG SAID BOUNDARY...AS FORESEE A BAND OF EXITING SHOWERS (PERHAPS
EVEN A TOUCH OF LOW-TOPPED/STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION) CROSSING THE
EASTERN COUNTIES THRU ABOUT 15Z. THEREAFTER...DEEP LAYER DRYING FCST
TO OVERTAKE THE AREA THRU LATE MORNING/AFTN...ENDING SYNOPTIC
COMPONENT TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO WRAP BACK INTO THE AREA...WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN (MEAN SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW) LIKELY SUPPORTING
DEVELOPING AREAS OF DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...INCREASINGLY STRONG
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AS H8 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND +2C BY 00Z) MAY
SUPPORT A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AS WELL.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIG CONCERN AS CORE OF 45-50KT 925-850MB WINDS
CROSSES THE AREA THRU THE EVENING. WHILE STRONGEST 3-6HR PRESSURE
RISES OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTH/WEST...ONSET OF COOLING PROFILES ALOFT
(I.E. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES) AND DECENT SHOT OF DOWNWARD
OMEGA CERTAINLY ARGUES WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACRS NORTHWEST LOWER/MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE
DEVELOPING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL ONLY HELP MATTERS. QUICK LOOK
AT PV TIME HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGESTS A TROP FOLD-TYPE BRIEF WIND EVENT
MAY TAKE SHAPE CENTERED ON 18Z WITH STRONG LINK ALOFT TO DOWNWARD
OMEGA IN COMBINATION WITH STRONGLY DIRECTIONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE FOR
A CWA-WIDE WIND ADVISORY EVENT NOT OVERLY HIGH (CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE)...BUT SUFFICIENTLY SURE ALONG NORTHWEST LOWER TO GO AHEAD
AND FIRE OFF AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT THRU THE DAY ON FRI.

DEEPER 850-700MB MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH
SUFFICIENT OVERWATER INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE A
BRIEF ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP INTO FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
DEEPLY CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INITIALLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AFTER 06Z SHOULD BEGIN TO QUELL LAKE
RESPONSE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST THRU
THE DAY ON SAT. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME PESKY LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS INTO SAT AFTN WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THOUGH INCREASINGLY STRONG PUSH OF DRY AIR
SHOULD SCOUR THINGS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THEREAFTER...LOOKS LIKE A
GREAT STRETCH SUN-MON WITH LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING AND QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN CONTROL.

LATER PERIODS (MON NIGHT THRU THU)...TRICKY FCST THRU THE EXTENDED...
AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH ENERGY ENTERING THE MIDWEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK. OVERALL MEAN UPR PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY
TROUGHING ACRS THE GULF OF ALASKA...TRANSITIONING TO MEAN WESTERN
CONUS RIDGING...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...
WITH ONE OR MORE PIECES OF ENERGY BECOMING TRAPPED OVR THE MIDWEST
BENEATH CORE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT. ECMWF BY FAR HAS BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT PIECE OF GUIDANCE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND HAVE
FOLLOWED ITS SOLUTION CLOSELY THIS GO AROUND...SHOWING CLOSED UPR
LOW MEANDERING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO MIDWEEK...WITH SFC CYCLONE
DUMBELLING BACK NORTH THRU THE PERIOD. GIVEN PROPENSITY FOR
CONDITIONS TO END UP GRUNGIER THAN EXPECTED PER CLIMO THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WILL FAVOR A WETTER/CLOUDIER SCENARIO FOR TUE/WED...AND HOLD
TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE AS POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A CHILLY
STRETCH PENDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION. NEXT FRONT ON
TAP TO ROLL INTO THE AREA LATER THU...THOUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK TRICKY WITH ECMWF SHOWING START COOL DOWN...BUT
WILL ONLY SLOWLY TREND READINGS DOWN AT THIS POINT AND SEE WHERE
LATER TRENDS TAKE US.

LAWRENCE

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/

A MYRIAD OF CONCERNS ON THE LAKES FROM THIS EVENING RIGHT ON THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. IMPRESSIVE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS (ON THE ORDER
OF 50 TO 70 KNOTS AROUND 5000 FEET) WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE LAKES WILL BECOME
INCREASING STABLE AS VERY WARM AIRMASS ADVECTS NORTH. PERUSING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES STABILITY WILL LIKELY WIN THE
BATTLE...BUT SIMPLE MOMENTUM ARGUMENT AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SUGGESTS WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE ON MAINLY LAKE
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. STILL...THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS
NOT ENTIRELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCALIZED STORM FORCE WINDS TO BE
OBSERVED.

OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTING INCREASING OVERLAKE
INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND PROBABLY EXPAND ON PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...
ESPECIALLY WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX OFF OF LAND. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

LAWRENCE

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHWARD THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND WILL CLEAR THE PLN AREA BY 21Z. RAINFALL COVERAGE DIMINISHES
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL
BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. 50 KNOT WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
2000 FEET THIS EVENING WHILE SFC WINDS REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS...
SETTING UP RESPECTABLE WIND SHEAR POSSIBILITIES AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT LOOKING TO SLIP INTO THE REGION LATE OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL/MVFR CONDITIONS.
AFTER FROPA...VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY.

ADAM

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ016-017-
     019>022-025>028-031>033.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>347.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ348-349.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 23, 12:23 PM EDT, 3 hours 52 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1223 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
241200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1222 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-32. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT A PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE
MITT COUNTIES TONIGHT.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS ALL LAKE
MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT ON LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

VERY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
ALL LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT

MSB

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 23, 10:48 AM EDT, 5 hours 27 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1048 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

MIZ015>029-031-032-231800-
ALPENA MI-ANTRIM MI-BENZIE MI-CHARLEVOIX MI-CHEBOYGAN MI-CRAWFORD
MI-EMMET MI-GRAND TRAVERSE MI-KALKASKA MI-LEELANAU MI-MACKINAC
MI-MANISTEE MI-MONTMORENCY MI-OSCODA MI-OTSEGO MI-PRESQUE ISLE
MI-WEXFORD MI-
1048 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR HEAVY RAIN...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW
LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY.
Local storm report, Sep 23, 11:25 AM EDT, 4 hours 50 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1125 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     FLOOD            TRAVERSE CITY           44.75N 85.60W
09/23/2010                   GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            URBANIZED FLOODING IN PARTS OF TRAVERSE CITY

&&

ASULLIVA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 23, 4:21 AM EDTGale WatchAPX12 hr
Sep 23, 4:21 AM EDTGale WarningAPX55 hr
Sep 23, 4:21 AM EDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAPX4 days

Nearby

Wind Advisories in Michigan, 2010Every wind advisory in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.