Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1032 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/

A HISTORIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY...BEFORE ONLY SLOWLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO
THROUGH THURSDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AND ACTIVATES THE LAKES.

THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS INCREDIBLE STORM WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS
WILL START RAMPING UP RIGHT AWAY TODAY...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60-70
MPH EASILY POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE OF SHOWERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
VERY STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND IN EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTS DURING THIS TIME
WILL APPROACH 60 MPH...BEFORE GRADUALLY LETTING UP THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1030 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BAND OF SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF ANJ WITH
AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND THE WRN LAKES. ALSO
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-35 MPH ACROSS THE NRN
LAKES...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER MIDWEST COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRENGTHENING PLAINS STORM SYSTEM. OVERALL FORECAST NOT EXPECTED
TO CHANGE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...AS CURRENT NRN MI CONDS ARE IN
LINE WITH MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND CURRENT RADAR
DATA.

FOR THIS AFTN...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. ADDITIONAL LIFT THIS
AFTN WILL BE AT UPPER LEVELS...700/500MB VORTICITY QUICKLY INCREASES
OVR THE CWA AROUND 18Z...IN ADVANCE OF A 500MB LOW ORGANIZING OVER
THE PLAINS AND PUSHING QUICKLY INTO WISCONSIN. THIS ADDITIONAL LIFT
WILL HELP CONTINUE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE NRN LAKES THIS
AFTN. ALSO...WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
850MB WINDS INCREASING FROM 35 KTS THIS MORNING TO NEARLY 60KTS BY
18Z.

EXPECT RAINFALL INTO THIS EVENING TO BE BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
INCH. 850MB DEW PTS WILL INCREASE TO NEARLY 12C IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.3
INCHES.

SWR

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

TONIGHT...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS, BUT THE BIG NEWS
WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE CAA
WILL HELP TO KEEP US UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKES
AND WITH THE WINDS AT 850 MB 60+ KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH, ALTHOUGH WOULD
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE LOWER THAN THAT.

WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER, THE CORE OF THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE DURING
THE DAY AS THE UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES TO MIX DEEPLY AND WITH THE
WINDS AT 850 MB STILL AROUND 60+ KNOTS, WILL SEE MANY MORE GUSTS
THAT WILL BE 50+ MPH. SO ARGUABLY, THIS COULD BE THE WINDIER OF
THE TWO DAYS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGHER WINDS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND THE
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE MOISTURE IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER CONTINUES TO BE BETTER THAN 80% WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LESS THAN 0C, BY 12Z SO WILL GO WITH LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NW FLOW AREAS.

THURSDAY...THE MOISTURE STAYS IN THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY,
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRY OUT LATE. WINDS (1000-850 MB) ON THE
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE NW TO WNW WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND -6C. LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES, THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME CONCERN FOR A MIXTURE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PROFILE BELOW 0C AND PART OF THE MODEL SOUNDING ABOVE THE -10C
LEVEL. HOWEVER, THERE IS 1500 FEET OF WARM AIR, AND WITH THE LAKE
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14C THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THAT DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE THAN RAIN.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE RAIN SHOULD BE WINDING UP AS THE 850-700
MB LAYER RH DWINDLES DOWN TO ABOUT 30% AND THE TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO WARM SO THAT THE INSTABILITY IS DECREASING. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND STAYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF WITH THE LESS
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

JSL

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 401 AM/

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE GALE OR STORM
FORCE GUSTS. BEHIND THE FRONT...STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON
LAKE MICHIGAN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY), HOWEVER, IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE STORM
WARNING WINDS ON LAKES SUPERIOR, AND HURON FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOWER LEVEL STABILITY OVER THE LAKES DECREASES
ALLOWING FOR THE 60+ KNOT WINDS AT 5000 FEET TO MIX DOWN A BIT.

JSL

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 749 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

THE VSBY IS LIFTING IN SOME AREAS, EXCEPT WHERE THE RAIN HAS
STARTED, BUT AS THE TEMPERATURES RISE HERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, THE FOG PROBLEMS WILL GO AWAY. INITIALLY, THE WINDS AREN'T
TOO BAD, BUT WE DO HAVE LLWS WITH THE WINDS WITHIN THE FIRST 2000
FEET SUSTAINED AT OVER 40 KNOTS. THE WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY WILL
BE STRONG, TO SAY THE LEAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FOR A TIME ONLY
TO HAVE THE WINDS PICK BACK UP AND GUST TO 60 KNOTS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.

JSL

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ008-015>036-
     041-042.
LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LH...STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LS...STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1123 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
271830-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1123 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. SEE ONGOING TORNADO WATCH FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED. SEE THE ONGOING HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY. SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN... WHEN GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...A FEW
GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL OCCUR. SEE THE ONGOING HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY.
SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS PLEASE RELAY ANY DAMAGE REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
916 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

MIZ020-021-025>027-031>033-261400-
ANTRIM MI-BENZIE MI-GRAND TRAVERSE MI-KALKASKA MI-LEELANAU
MI-MANISTEE MI-MISSAUKEE MI-WEXFORD MI-
916 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 911 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES WEST OF
MANISTEE TO 7 MILES WEST OF FREESOIL TO HOXEYVILLE TO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HOXEYVILLE TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF EVART...AND MOVING
NORTH AT 65 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  MANISTEE...
  CADILLAC...
  LAKE CITY...
  THOMPSONVILLE...
  FRANKFORT...
  BEULAH...
  TRAVERSE CITY...
  EMPIRE...
  KALKASKA...
  ELK RAPIDS...
  LELAND...
  BELLAIRE...
  MANCELONA...
  HARRIETTA...
  BOON...
  YUMA...
  EASTLAKE...
  PARKDALE...
  BRETHREN...
  ORCHARD BEACH STATE PARK...

ARNOTT